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By XE Market Analysis September 12, 2013 2:24 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Sep 12, 2013

    The dollar was mixed and rangebound in N.Y. trade on Thursday. The greenback got a brief boost from sharply lower jobless claims data, though reporting issues canceled out the veracity of the number. EUR-USD tracked its way over 1.3300 after holding 1.3250, though had difficulty holding the figure. A N.Y. close under the level may bring fresh sellers to bear. USD-JPY found support ahead of 99.00, after peaking near 99.75 post-data. Cable made new trend highs of 1.5840, while the AUD stayed under 0.9300 after skidding overnight on weak Aussie jobs data.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD steadied and picked up as 1.3250 held. There was a brief wobble over the U.S. data, which cleared away intra-day stops at 1.3275, but better bids put a floor in place. Some longs may have been hoping for a re-run of yesterday's option related push higher and there were expiries at 1.3275, 1.3290 and 1.3300 today. However, persistent EUR-JPY supply and good resistance from 1.3330 have been effective on the topside. If EUR does not close out the session over 1.3300 then playing the recent range looks likely into next week's FOMC meeting. In the longer-term, the potential for another long-term tender from the ECB could be a EUR-negative, but not an influence for FX at this time.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY touched intra day lows of 99.04, with intra day sellers stepping in on the move under 99.25. Option related offers were reportedly a factor after the 10:00 EDT cut, where expiries at 99.50 featured. From here, bids are expected into the 99.00 level, while stops are noted under the figure. Nikkei later reported a Japan corporate tax cut for fiscal-year 2014 may be in the works and that may have helped prop up USD-JPY, which has poked back over Y99.30 from the 99.05 area earlier. Perhaps this will help offset the planned sales tax increase?

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable edged out new trend highs as a round of dollar selling carried it to 1.5840. The move appeared to be dollar related as a block of currencies took off after the options cut. EUR-USD popped to 1.3325 from 1.3280 and this lifted Cable. Several currencies are on the cusp of an extended move. EUR eyes 1.3330 resistance, USD-JPY stops are noted under 99.00 and Cable option barriers are noted at 1.5850. Cable should meet good supply up here in light of tomorrow expiries, though corrections are still very shallow and longs target extended gains unless there is a move back below 1.5750, which was a major top before it took off on Wednesday's strong employment data. Since Wednesday buyers have been camped between 1.5780 and 1.5760.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF experienced limited upside as equity markets came under pressure. Activity was still quite subdued as the market waits for next week's FOMC outcome. There is still some uncertainty regarding Syria, but tensions have faded as leaders pursue the diplomatic route for now. EUR-CHF edged back into the 1.2370-75 area in line with EUR-USD, which was weighed by Asian commercial flows and talk of EUR-JPY selling from a Middle Eastern name. The EUR-CHF downside was absorbed to a degree by a USD-CHF move back over 0.9300, but both the cross and the dollar pairing could struggle as recent swissy shorts are pared back into pending event risks next week, which also include the SNB policy decision.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD traded a narrow band through the session, finding support into 1.0310 and a top over 1.0335. Barrier options were reported at 1.0300, and were defended on dips toward 1.0310. Softer risk taking levels, and the selloff in gold provided some support to the pairing, though interest overall was lacking.

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