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August housing permits and starts: restrain your enthusiasm (part 2 of 2)

By: New_Deal_democrat

This is the conclusion of my examination of housing permits and starts for August. Yesterday I noted that the good news in overall permits was not confirmed by the less volatile but equally leading single family permits, was not confirmed by starts, and was not confirmed when we remove the hurricane-affected South (where, paradoxically, builders may have accelerated taking out permits before the storms, as the relevant offices were likely to be disrupted for weeks afterward). I wanted to follow up with one final note: in the past I have noted that single family permits typically peak before multi-family permits. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Sep 21, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar posted fresh highs versus the yen, Swiss franc and some other currencies, though the overall breadth and momentum of gains waned as markets digest the Fed's hawkish up-gearing. EUR-USD floated back above 1.1900, leaving unchallenged yesterday's post-Fed low at 1.1861. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Sep 21, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has opened in London about 1% higher following the Fed's announcement yesterday, which confirmed the start of a QT program, as had been widely anticipated, but showed via the dot plot that another rate hike is in the works before year-end followed by another three hikes in 2018. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Sep 20, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

FX trade was quiet through the morning session, with activity muted ahead of the FOMC announcement. The dollar rose, then fell, then rose again following the Fed, as it detailed the kickoff of its QT program, as widely expected, and left another 2017 rate hike on the table. Read more

US Bond Market Week in Review: The Fed is Determined to Get Inflation Wrong

By: HaleStewart

Today, the Federal Reserve issued their latest monetary policy statement, keeping rates at 1%-1.25%. They describe the economy as expanding moderately: the labor market continues to grow, households are spending and investment is picking up. Read more

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Broadly Lower Ahead of the Fed

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW NZD is out-performing on latest poll showing ruling National Party ahead of Labour. GBP boosted by strong August retail sales fails to hold gains. AUD testing higher after comments from the RBA's Luci Ellis on the global economy. Brent crude oil prices at highest since July 2015. HIGHLIGHT The market pricing for US interest rates out to June next year is only pointing to one interest rate with the June 2018 contract at 98.6. Read more

Housing permits: restrain your enthusiasm (Part 1 of 2)

By: New_Deal_democrat

Hurricane Harvey almost certainly had an effect on the August housing report, and Irma will like join it in affecting the September report as well. Here is the Census Bureau's statement, in relevant part, on the effect of the hurricanes: They specifically note in the same statement that they made no special adjustment in the reported numbers as a result. But, first things first. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Sep 20, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar traded generally softer as markets anticipate the Fed's policy announcement and statement. The pound was notable today as it rallied strongly on above-forecast retail sales data out of the UK, but subsequently gave back most of its gains as the latest tri-monthly BoE agents survey of anecdotal activity made for less rosy reading.[EUR, USD]EUR-USD lifted to a nine-session high at 1.2020, despite a report yesterday of there not being a consensus among ECB policymakers about when to begin tapering. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Sep 20, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The euro has remained bid, despite a report of there not being a consensus among ECB policymakers about when to begin tapering. EUR-USD logged a nine-day high at 1.2020 and EUR-JPY remaining buoyant, although below the 22-month high seen yesterday. USD-JPY, meanwhile, has settled to a consolidation after rallying quite strongly over the last week amid a risk-on backdrop in global financial markets, which the yen tends to correlate inversely to, and as markets anticipate the Fed and BoJ policy announcements, due today and tomorrow, respectively. Read more

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