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XE Market Analysis: North America - Jan 17, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar came under broad pressure as Trumpflation trades unravel some more after president-elect Trump said the dollar is "too strong" against the Chinese currency in an interview with the WSJ. While aimed at China markets have taken the remarks as a backlash against the 5%-odd rally the dollar saw following Trump's victory in the presidential election two months ago. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jan 17, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has come under broad pressure, which has driven EUR-USD to a three-session of 1.0665 and USD-JPY to a fresh six-week low of 113.26. The beleaguered pound also benefited, with Cable extending its recovery from yesterday's three-month low at 1.1987 to a peak of 1.2136, before settling around 1.2100. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Slides on Brexit Speculation

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW Emerging market currencies are under pressure in the week where Donald Trump will officially become the 45th President of the USA. The IMF raised its economic growth forecasts for the U.S. economy this year by 0.1%, and next year by 0.4%, as it expects Trump's policy plans to boost activity. In an interview with the Times newspaper, Trump suggested that the US and UK would be able to establish a quick trade deal, and that other countries might follow the UK and leave the EU. HIGHLIGHT Sterling fell 2 cents against the US Dollar as markets began trading in Asia after reports in the media suggested that Theresa May will outline a "hard" Brexit in her speech. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jan 16, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The pound dove in response to weekend reports that the UK PM May will announce tomorrow that the government will be pursuing a so-called hard Brexit, leaving free access to the single market so as to take full control of the border. Cable hit a three-month low of 1.1987 in the early London AM, and was settled around 1.2060 as of the early PM session in Europe, which still left the pound nursing a 1.1% decline on the day. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jan 16, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

Sterling dove on weekend Brexit news, with a speech by PM May scheduled for Tuesday reported by several Sunday newspapers to be the venue where she will make clear that the government will take the UK out of free access of the EU's single market. Confirmation of a "hard" Brexit in other words, though government sources have downplayed this as being "speculation." In the scenario that she confirms this, the focus will be how quickly and under what terms the UK will re-establish a new trading deal with the EU and the 60 other economies that the EU has a trade deal in place. Read more

International Economic Week in Review: More Positive News, Edition

By: HaleStewart

There was no central, unifying theme this week. News from the EU continued in a positive vein. Industrial production rose a very strong 1.5% M/M and 3.2% Y/Y. More importantly, the overall level shows an increase beyond its sideways range of the last year: The unemployment rate was stable at 9.8%. Read more

US Bond Market Week in Review: A Rate Hike is a Lock, Edition

By: HaleStewart

We had a number of Fed speakers this week. Philly Fed President Lacker stated, “The economy is displaying considerable strength.” Regarding the employment situation, he approvingly cited the U3 and U6 levels, the historically low number of layoffs, and the high level of quits as indicators of labor market health. Read more

US Equity and Economic Review: The Post-Election Rally Fades

By: HaleStewart

This was a very light news week for the United States. Most importantly, the Census’ retail sales figures increased .6% M/M and 4.1% Y/Y. The comparable ex-auto numbers were 3.4%. The following graph shows both numbers meaningfully increasing in the 2H16: The BLS released the latest JOLTs data. Read more

Weekly Indicators: the "Trump election effect" fades edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

Monthly data for December included strong nominal retail sales, and business sales as a whole were positive as well, but inventories and the inventory to sales ratio also increased. Producer prices increased m/m and as aYoY% as well. Preliminary January University of Michigan consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged. My usual note: I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good Now-cast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. Read more

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