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XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jan 16, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

Sterling dove on weekend Brexit news, with a speech by PM May scheduled for Tuesday reported by several Sunday newspapers to be the venue where she will make clear that the government will take the UK out of free access of the EU's single market. Confirmation of a "hard" Brexit in other words, though government sources have downplayed this as being "speculation." In the scenario that she confirms this, the focus will be how quickly and under what terms the UK will re-establish a new trading deal with the EU and the 60 other economies that the EU has a trade deal in place. Read more

International Economic Week in Review: More Positive News, Edition

By: HaleStewart

There was no central, unifying theme this week. News from the EU continued in a positive vein. Industrial production rose a very strong 1.5% M/M and 3.2% Y/Y. More importantly, the overall level shows an increase beyond its sideways range of the last year: The unemployment rate was stable at 9.8%. Read more

US Bond Market Week in Review: A Rate Hike is a Lock, Edition

By: HaleStewart

We had a number of Fed speakers this week. Philly Fed President Lacker stated, “The economy is displaying considerable strength.” Regarding the employment situation, he approvingly cited the U3 and U6 levels, the historically low number of layoffs, and the high level of quits as indicators of labor market health. Read more

US Equity and Economic Review: The Post-Election Rally Fades

By: HaleStewart

This was a very light news week for the United States. Most importantly, the Census’ retail sales figures increased .6% M/M and 4.1% Y/Y. The comparable ex-auto numbers were 3.4%. The following graph shows both numbers meaningfully increasing in the 2H16: The BLS released the latest JOLTs data. Read more

Weekly Indicators: the "Trump election effect" fades edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

Monthly data for December included strong nominal retail sales, and business sales as a whole were positive as well, but inventories and the inventory to sales ratio also increased. Producer prices increased m/m and as aYoY% as well. Preliminary January University of Michigan consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged. My usual note: I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good Now-cast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jan 13, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

FX trade was relatively quiet in N.Y. on Friday, though the dollar did perk up marginally, leaving the USD index at 101.30 into the close. Decent retail sales and in-line PPI data helped USD sentiment, though ahead of a long U.S. weekend, the rally petered out early. Read more

XE Market Analysis: PM's Planned Speech Startles Sterling

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW U.S. retail sales rose at a solid pace last month, rising 0.6% compared to November which was just below market forecasts of a 0.7% gain. The Chinese trade surplus narrowed unexpectedly in December, dropping from $44bn to $40bn as exports fell 6% year-on-year, the worst drop since 2009. Federal Reserve officials noted that there is optimism around the incoming president's plans for fiscal stimulus and tax reduction, but also warned his measures could force the Fed into "preemptive" rate increases. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jan 13, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar traded softer, but has remained comfortably above the post-Trump press conference lows. USD-JPY has ebbed to the upper 114s after failing to sustain gains above 115.00, but remains over a big figure up on yesterday's one-month low at 113.75. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jan 13, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar is trading softer into the London open, but remains comfortably above the post-Trump press conference lows. USD-JPY has ebbed to the upper 114s after failing to sustain gains above 115.00, but remains over a big figure up on yesterday's one-month low at 113.75. Read more

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