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XE Market Analysis: Trump-Care Setback Hammers Dollar

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW The US Dollar has slumped to a four-month low against a basket of currencies. Sterling is strong ahead of Wednesday’s triggering of Article 50. Commodity linked currencies stumble in risk-off trade. HIGHLIGHT The week starts with risk aversion due to two events: firstly, Trump’s healthcare reform act failed to be passed in Congress and secondly, the triggering of Article 50 scheduled for Wednesday, which means Brexit will become a reality. US DOLLAR The US Dollar is weaker today as the failure to secure President Trump’s new healthcare bill drives negative sentiment. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Mar 27, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar logged a four-month-plus low against the yen, a four-week low versus sterling and a three-month-plus low in the case against the euro, in addition to fresh lows against other currencies. The losses reflect a fresh unwinding of the "Trumpflation" trade following the failure of the health care bill late on Friday. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Mar 27, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has been under pressure following the failure of Trump's healthcare reform bill, which has cast doubt over his ability to push through his other reform bills. USD-JPY has been the biggest mover, with markets demanding the safe haven yen. The pair is showing over a 1% decline, having fallen four-month-plus low of 110.15. Read more

US Equity and Economic Review: It's Just a Correction, Nothing More

By: HaleStewart

     The housing market continues to grow.  New home sales increased 6.1% M/M and 12.8% Y/Y.  While existing home sales declined 3.7% M/M they rose 12.8% Y/Y.  The following chart places these figures into a longer-term context: Read more

International Economic Week in Review: Edging Higher

By: HaleStewart

Earlier in the week, Gavyn Davies at the FT published a story that theorized about potential ways that the latest expansion could end. According to him, these three options represent the highest possibilities: Demand side secular stagnation (associated with the ideas of Lawrence Summers); Positive demand shocks combined with supply side weakness, leading to inflation pressure (associated with concerns expressed by Janet Yellen about the risk of raising US interest rates too slowly); and A downturn in the financial super cycle (associated with the thinking of Claudio Borio at the BIS). Davies compares and contrasts all three, offering the reader insight into what might be in store. Read more

US Bond Market Week in Review: Gradual Lift-Off Has Begun

By: HaleStewart

The Fed’s consensus is now for additional rate hikes. Cleveland President Mester – who is a non-voting member – argued for 3 rate hikes this year in addition to a reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet. Chicago Fed President Evans – who does vote on interest rate policy – is arguing for 2 additional hikes. Read more

Weekly Indicators: almost no negatives edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

February data included a decrease in existing home sales, but an increase in the more economically important new home sales. Durable goods orders increased, although "core" durable goods decreased slightly. My usual note: I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good Now-cast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Mar 24, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

FX Trade was nervous in N.Y. on Friday, though ranges overall were relatively narrow, and the dollar mixed. Uncertainty over the outcome of the House healthcare bill was behind the market chop, with wrangling going on between House leadership and the White House through most of the session. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Eurozone Business Growth Fastest in 6 Years

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW BoE policymaker Vlieghe's comments dampen rate increase prospects causing Pound to give back gains. The US Dollar is steady as we wait for another vote on the new healthcare legislation later today. Euro strengthens on Purchasing Managers survey report of buoyancy in the service and manufacturing sectors. The Japanese Yen had its strongest run since 2010 against the US Dollar as investors seek the safe haven currency. HIGHLIGHT The European economy continues to show further evidence of recovery with the Purchasing Manager's Index reporting Eurozone businesses growing at their fastest pace in nearly 6 years. US DOLLAR The US Dollar remains stable across the board while we wait for another vote on healthcare where President Trump suggested a 'take it or leave it' deal. Read more

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