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US Bond Market Week in Review: The Economy Is Setting Up the Fed for Hikes

By: HaleStewart

Entering 2017, the Fed has the best of both worlds. The labor market is in good condition. The unemployment rate is below 5%, JOLTs data is near highs from the previous expansion and wage growth is picking up. While the monthly payroll job growth number has been dropping slightly, this could actually be a sign of a maturing labor market; there are simply fewer jobs to create in a mature expansion. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jan 20, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

Market focus was on the Trump inauguration on Friday, which left Wall Street higher, the dollar mixed, and yields little changed. EUR-USD opened at session lows of 1.0625, later making its way to 1.0695 highs. USD-JPY ranged between 115.27 and 114.61. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Market Awaits Trump

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW The market is relatively quiet as we await president-elect Trump’s inauguration, his speech, and executive actions that some of his nominees have spoken about this week. UK retail sales fell sharply in December as annual shop price inflation hit a three-year high. China's economy grew by a faster-than-expected 6.8% in the fourth quarter, boosted by higher government spending and record bank lending. Canadian retail sales rose less than expected in November, and inflation also fell short of expectations as cheaper food costs offset higher gasoline prices. Mario Draghi remained slightly dovish as he faced questions over opposition to last month’s decision to extend their Q.E. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jan 20, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar more the reversed intraday weakness and was showing over a 0.4% gain on the euro and yen heading into the New York interbank open. EUR-USD drifted southward through the European AM session, returning the pair to near net unchanged levels on the week. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jan 20, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has settled moderately lower, by about 0.2% versus the other majors, as markets brace for Trump's inauguration later today, hungry for further detail on his plans for fiscal and trade policies. USD-JPY has ebbed back under 115.00 after rallying strongly over the previous two days. Read more

Housing permits portend good news for 2017

By: New_Deal_democrat

This morning's housing report was good news for two reasons. First of all, single family permits (red) made another post recession high: Single family permits tend to peak at the same time as permits overall, but they are less noisy, and they were not affected by the NYC distortion of 18 months ago that caused the big spike. Secondly, permits overall were above 1200 for the 4th month in a row. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Rate Cuts Still on The Table in Canada

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW Janet Yellen warned the U.S. risks a "nasty surprise" if it waits too long to continue raising interest rates. The Fed's Beige Book reported the U.S. economy continued to expand at a modest pace across most regions through the end of last year. New Zealand consumer confidence edged higher in January. UK finance minister, Philip Hammond, said the UK would be forced to "find ways" to compete if a deal with the EU is not achievable. Australian employment rose in line with expectations last month, though the unemployment rate rose to 5.8%. HIGHLIGHT The Canadian Dollar fell two cents against its U.S. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jan 19, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar rebound, catalysed by yesterday's spicy U.S. inflation data and hawkish guidance from Fed's Yellen, continued into the Asia session before sputtering and stalling. USD-JPY clocked a six-day peak at 114.89 before retreating and settling to the mid 114s. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jan 19, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has rallied across-the-board after Fed's Yellen extended the rate hike timeline into 2019, warning that being behind the curve risked a "nasty surprise." This followed a round of firm U.S. y/y CPI data, while the Fed's Beige Book survey of anecdotal activity also pointed out increasing signs of labour market tightness. Read more

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