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Weekly Indicators: new and different wobbles edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

August data included a decline in the index of Leading Indicators, due to the poor ISM manufacturing index and manufacturing work hours. Housing starts increased, but permits and existing home sales decreased. My usual note: I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good Now-cast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Sep 23, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade on Friday, moving lower versus the euro and pound, while posting gains against the yen and CAD. Aside from the flash Markit manufacturing PMI, which was weaker than expected, though had no lasting impact on the dollar, the calendar was empty. Read more

Pound Falls On Talk of Article 50

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW The German economy appears to be losing further momentum with the service sector PMI falling to a 16-month low in September. Existing home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly fell 0.9% in August, the second straight month of declining sales. Eurozone business activity is expanding at its weakest rate since the start of August 2015. HIGHLIGHT The German government warned this week that growth will slow down in the second half of this year, blaming the slow growth on weaker foreign demand for goods. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Sep 23, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar traded narrowly mixed. USD-JPY clocked a two-session high at 101.24 during the Tokyo session, since falling back to near net unchanged levels around 100.80-90, while EUR-USD plied narrow range around 1.1200. Cable fell by over 0.5% amid a fresh bout of sterling underperformance, taking the pair to a two-session low at 1.2988, while the commodity and emerging currencies settled after gaining against the greenback yesterday, during the post-FOMC risk-on theme in global markets, which lots its fizz today. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Sep 23, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has firmed back some following yesterday's underperformance as the fizz of the post-FOMC risk-on theme abated. EUR-USD has ebbed back to the 1.1200 area after peaking yesterday at an eight-day at 1.1257, and Cable has breached below yesterday's low in making 1.3030. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Sep 22, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar started Thursday's N.Y. session on a softer footing, though later managed to perk up some, largely on the back of post-FOMC profit taking. EUR-USD topped at one-week highs of 1.1257, before fading to 1.1209 lows into the close. USD-JPY was supported by the improved risk backdrop, holding over 100.50, before peaking at 100.91. Read more

Dollar Weakens as Fed Waits

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW Federal Reserve kept rates on hold and signalled a possible rate hike this year. The Bank of England warned there are still risks to the UK economy following the Brexit vote. The ECB highlighted risks to global growth next year including slowing growth in emerging economies and China, as well as the Brexit vote. HIGHLIGHT The Federal Reserve has once again lowered their expectations for where rates will be in a few years’ time saying, “the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but (the committee) decided, for the time being, to wait.” Three board members unexpectedly voted to hike rates now, although they remained somewhat non-committal on when the hike would come. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Sep 22, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar remained mostly under the cosh following the less hawkish than expected guidance from the Fed yesterday. The buck was showing a 0.4% decline versus euro as of the early European PM, and a slightly bigger loss to the Australian and Canadian dollars, which, along with most Emerging market currencies, benefitted from a post-FOMC risk-on vibe. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Sep 22, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

USD-JPY extended into one-month low territory under 100.10 as markets digest yesterday's Fed and BoJ policy decisions and guidance of yesterday. To recap, the BoJ overhauled its policy framework, introducing "QQE with yield curve control" and an "inflation-overshooting commitment," but the main policy rate and the -0.1% rate on selected reserves, and other policy variables, were left unchanged -- there was no actually increase in stimulus. Read more


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