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US Equity and Economic Review: Another Retreat, Edition

By: HaleStewart

Topline U.S. growth is lackluster: 4Q15 GDP grew 1.4% and the initial 1Q16 report was .5%. And the combination of a strong dollar and weak international economies have led to declining corporate profits in 4 of the last 5 quarters. The combination of weak economic and revenue growth is the primary reason equity markets have been unable to break through long-term resistance. Read more

US Bond Market Week in Review: In Which I Respectfully Disagree with Tim Duy, Edition

By: HaleStewart

This week the Fed released its latest assessment of the U.S. economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that labor market conditions have improved further even as growth in economic activity appears to have slowed. Read more

International Economic Week in Review: Are Brazil and Russia Exporting Their Weakness?

By: HaleStewart

     Recently,  Fed President Brainard offered a fascinating insight into the reasons for slower U.S. growth.  Read more

Weekly Indicators: is an inventory liquidation underway? edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

The biggest news of the week was the slightly positive first Quarter GDP. First Quarter employment costs also increased. Monthly data for April started out with a barely positive Chicago PMI, and decreases in two measures of consumer sentiment. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Apr 29, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

It was a risk-off session in N.Y. on Friday, as the dollar, yields, and equities all turned lower. Incoming data was mostly light of expectations, with income holding up, but consumption lagging, as Chicago PMI and Michigan sentiment numbers both faded. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Apr 29, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The yen surge and general dollar dip have continued today. USD-JPY crashed through the former April low at 107.63 during Tokyo-less trade in Asia before extending to an 18-month low of 106.91 during the London AM. EUR-USD, meanwhile, rose to a 17-day peak at 1.1414, assisted by the soft buck and strong Spanish and French GDP data, which were duly followed by the release of 0.6% q/q growth in Eurozone Q1 data, double the median forecast, although by this time the euro had settled back under 1.1400, where it remained. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Apr 29, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The yen has remained strong, and the dollar soft as the BoJ and Fed policy statements this week continue to resonate, having resolutely disappointed expectations for an easing in the case of the former and mildly disappointed those market participants looking for hawkish spin in the case of the latter. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Apr 28, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

Following overnight gyrations, led by USD-JPY, FX trade was relatively calm through the N.Y. session on Thursday, with major dollar pairings largely stuck inside of narrow ranges. Wall Street stumbled on the back of a softer GDP report, though yields moved up from session lows. Read more

Housing: April 2016 update

By: New_Deal_democrat

Let me do one of my periodic updates on housing. As I have often said, I pay a lot of attention to this market because it is probably the single most leading sector of the US economy, with broader consequences one and even two years out. My mantra is: interest rates lead sales new single home sales lead permits single family permits lead multi-family permits permits lead prices prices lead inventory Let's take a look at each of these in order. Read more


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