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Weekly Indicators: the US$ slides towards parity against major currencies editioin

By: New_Deal_democrat

January 2016 reports started out with a continuation of job gains, including big positive moves in hours, hourly wages, and participation. Vehicle sales were positive, although still below their late 2015 peak. ISM manufacturing was less negative (but new orders turned positive), and ISM services were less positive. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Feb 05, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar stumbled initially after the employment report, which missed on the headline NFP print, though overall were quite solid overall. USD losses were short lived however, as it appeared some end of week profit taking set in following the dollar's worst week since 2009. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Feb 05, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar largely consolidated recent moves in overnight trade, as the market anticipates this morning's January U.S. employment report. We look for a 200k rise in non-farm payrolls, and a dip in the unemployment rate to a cycle low of 4.9%. Such a result would be welcome in the current backdrop of otherwise soft incoming data. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Feb 05, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has consolidated losses during a relatively subdued session in Asia, with markets having wound down into today's U.S. payrolls release, which will be a big focus amid signs of moderating economic momentum and consequent re-pricing of Fed policy expectations. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Feb 04, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

Another rough day for the dollar on Thursday, resulting in major currencies moving to trend highs across the board. More disappointing U.S. data, this time in the form of weak Q4 productivity and December factory orders weighed on the USD, as did softer Treasury yields, and volatile equities. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Feb 04, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dual themes of dollar weakness and euro strength persisted, propelling EUR-USD to a 15-week peak at 1.1169. The pairing has been a central conduit of dollar selling since yesterday, as this pair had been a prime short vehicle during past phases of euro underperformance. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Feb 04, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has consolidated the sharp losses of yesterday, when markets took a rethink of Fed tightening expectations at the prompt of dovish remarks by member Dudley. USD-JPY has settled around 118.00 after logging a two-week low at 117.05 EUR-USD has retreated back under 1.1100, leaving yesterday's best-in-three-months high at 1.1145. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Feb 03, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was crushed in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, sending the USD index to three month lows, as EUR-USD surged to 1.1145, and USD-JPY dove to 117.05. A decent ADP employment survey was offset by a soggy services ISM outcome, while dovish Fedspeak from Dudley got the dollar selling ball rolling. Read more

2H 2016 forecast: a qualified vote for continued expansion

By: New_Deal_democrat

This is the second part of my 2016 forecast. I withheld this until I had necessary information from the 4th Quarter GDP report. In the first part, I forecast weakness this winter into spring as hopefully excess inventory is liquidated and the industrial recession induced by the strong US$ bottoms. Geoffrey Moore, who for decades published the Index of Leading Indicators, and founded the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) in 1993, wrote Leading Economic Indicators: New Approaches and Forecasting Records describing and explaining what he called "long leading indicators," that is, economic metrics that reliably turn a year or more before the onset of a recession. Read more

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