Home > XE Currency Blog > XE Currency Blog - Market Analysis & Forex News

AD

Error message

Notice: unserialize(): Error at offset 40 of 40 bytes in variable_initialize() (line 1176 of /var/www/community/webroot/community/includes/bootstrap.inc).

Housing heated up in July

By: New_Deal_democrat

It's time for my monthly look at housing, which is the most important long leading consumer sector in the economy -- and the news is almost completely positive. To begin, let me repeat the general paradigm: - interest rates lead housing sales - housing sales lead prices - prices lead inventory Interest rates have fallen in 2016 to near their 2013 lows: Unsurprisingly, new home sales have made several new highs, including a near 9 year high in yesterday morning's report for July -- but keep in mind that this report does get heavily revised: Since new home sales are usually the first housing metric that peaks, this suggests that a recession is at least more than one year away. Interestingly, even when we subtract the northeast region that includes New York (subject of 2015's distortion), permits have still gone sideways: A comparison shows that single family permits (blue) have also gone sideways this year, while multi-family permits (red) have been very volatile, and have not approached their mid-2015 high (which was the big NYC distortion): But housing starts show the actual economic activity, and these (blue in the graph below) have been in a slowly rising trend: While new home sales and housing starts have shown increases, housing prices are still going sideways: and although I won't show a graph, July 2016 prices were actually slightly lower than prices 12 months ago. Meanwhile inventory has actually turned down slightly in the last few months: When we put hew home sales (blue), prices (red), and inventory (green) all together, normed to 100 at the end of the last recession: we see that - sales started up in the beginning of 2011, hit plateaus in 2014 and 2015, and have started up again in the last few months - prices started up at the end of 2011, and have been flat ever since late 2014, and - inventory started up in mid-2012, and has continued to increase until plateauing and turning down slightly this year. Most importantly, the decline in interest rates should continue to fuel improvement in sales. Read more

XE Market Analysis: SA Rand Slumps Amid Spy Scandal

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW The South African Rand fell to its lowest in a month after another finance ministry scandal. U.S. new home sales had an unexpected jump of over 12% in July driven by surging Midwest sales. German GDP data for the second quarter showed the 0.4% rise was driven by exports, higher state spending, and private consumption as investment remained sluggish. UK mortgage approvals from the British Bankers Association fell to 37.6k in July, their lowest in eighteen months but broadly in-line with market forecasts. HIGHLIGHT The South African Rand has fallen by almost 5% against the US Dollar – its lowest in a month - as trouble reemerged in the beleaguered finance ministry. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Aug 24, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar reversed yesterday's weakness today in news-light summertime dealings. USD-JPY eked out a two-day peak of 100.52, while EUR-USD ebbed to a two-session lows below 1.1300. Dollar majors have essentially settled ahead of Fed Chair Yellen's keynote address on Friday. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Aug 24, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar reversed yesterday's weakness today in news-light pre-London dealing in Asia. USD-JPY eked out a two-day peak of 100.52, while EUR-USD ebbed to a two-session lows below 1.1300. Dollar majors have settled ahead of Fed Chair Yellen's keynote address on Friday amid summertime thinness. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Aug 23, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was fairly steady in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, after losing ground overnight. Incoming U.S. data was mixed, with new home sales beating expectations while the Richmond Fed index plunged. EUR-USD topped at 1.1348 early in the session, and later made its way to 1.1306 lows. Read more

XE Market Analysis: NZ Dollar Rises Despite Possible Rate Cuts

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW RBNZ's governor Wheeler indicated plans to cut rates below the current record low of 2%. Eurozone flash estimates of the August purchasing managers index show a slight increase in the composite index on stronger services activity. UK manufacturing export orders rose to their highest level in two years in August. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Aug 23, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar traded on a soft footing, although recouped from lows seen during the London AM session. USD-JPY pressure drove the broader move following a Nikkei newspaper article that shone a light on growing market speculation that the Japanese government will not intervene in the currency market any time soon, which, the report maintains, may take away what little downward pressure still remains on the yen. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Aug 23, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar traded softer in pre-London open dealings today, led by USD-JPY, which dove back to the low 100.00s. This put in a little distance form yesterday's four-session high at 100.93. A burst of yen buying was seen in Tokyo in response to a Nikkei newspaper article that shone a light on growing market speculation that the Japanese government will not intervene in the currency market any time soon, which, the report maintains, may take away what little downward pressure still remains on the yen. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Aug 22, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

FX trade was relatively quiet to start the week, though the greenback was mostly lower overall. There was no data to rive U.S. markets, though yields edged lower, perhaps weighing on the dollar some. EUR-USD topped at 1.1330 after basing at 1.1300, as USD-JPY stumbled to 100.22 lows, down from opening highs over 100.60. Read more

Pages

Paste link in email or IM