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Weekly Indicators: are gas prices beginning to affect consumer spending? edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

Monthly data for December included a slight decrease in building permits, but a new post-recession high in the less volatile single family permits, and an increase in housing starts. This factored into a flat Index of Leading Indicators. Industrial production and capacity utilization rebounded sharply, reversing November's sharp losses. Read more

Trump Inherits a Solid Economy; But Additional Stimulus Would Increase Inflation

By: HaleStewart

The new president inherits an economy in solid shape. Moreover, there are no recessionary signs on the horizon. However, because the economy is currently at or near full employment, an increase in stimulus spending may increase inflation, forcing the Fed to increase rates at a faster than desired pace, leading to a recession. Let’s start with the current situation by looking at the primary coincident indicators: The total number of employees (left) shows a consistent five-year increase. Read more

US Equity and Economic Review: Still Looking Good, Edition

By: HaleStewart

What this week’s U.S. news releases lacked in number, they made up in weight. Housing starts increased 11.3% M/M and 5.7% Y/Y. The top chart shows the overall number, which has moved sideways since early 2015. Read more

International Economic Week in Review: Despite May's Brexit Rebranding Effort, Big Problems Remain

By: HaleStewart

Prime Minister May’s Brexit speech dominated this week’s economic news. The initial reaction was positive: analysts lauded the speech’s clarity which led the sterling to rally. However, long-term problems still remain. The 2-year goal for completing the re-negotiation still looks too ambitious, especially since the UK is still hiring the required negotiators. Read more

US Bond Market Week in Review: The Economy Is Setting Up the Fed for Hikes

By: HaleStewart

Entering 2017, the Fed has the best of both worlds. The labor market is in good condition. The unemployment rate is below 5%, JOLTs data is near highs from the previous expansion and wage growth is picking up. While the monthly payroll job growth number has been dropping slightly, this could actually be a sign of a maturing labor market; there are simply fewer jobs to create in a mature expansion. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jan 20, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

Market focus was on the Trump inauguration on Friday, which left Wall Street higher, the dollar mixed, and yields little changed. EUR-USD opened at session lows of 1.0625, later making its way to 1.0695 highs. USD-JPY ranged between 115.27 and 114.61. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Market Awaits Trump

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW The market is relatively quiet as we await president-elect Trump’s inauguration, his speech, and executive actions that some of his nominees have spoken about this week. UK retail sales fell sharply in December as annual shop price inflation hit a three-year high. China's economy grew by a faster-than-expected 6.8% in the fourth quarter, boosted by higher government spending and record bank lending. Canadian retail sales rose less than expected in November, and inflation also fell short of expectations as cheaper food costs offset higher gasoline prices. Mario Draghi remained slightly dovish as he faced questions over opposition to last month’s decision to extend their Q.E. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jan 20, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar more the reversed intraday weakness and was showing over a 0.4% gain on the euro and yen heading into the New York interbank open. EUR-USD drifted southward through the European AM session, returning the pair to near net unchanged levels on the week. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jan 20, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has settled moderately lower, by about 0.2% versus the other majors, as markets brace for Trump's inauguration later today, hungry for further detail on his plans for fiscal and trade policies. USD-JPY has ebbed back under 115.00 after rallying strongly over the previous two days. Read more


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