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US Equity And Economic Review: Moderate Growth and Declining Earnings, Edition

By: HaleStewart

The BEA issued its second GDP report last week, increasing the 3Q GDP estimate to 2.1%. Real gross domestic purchases – a measure of strictly domestic demand – increased 2.8% Y/Y. From the report: The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, residential fixed investment, and exports that were partly offset by a negative contribution from private inventory investment. Read more

US Bond Market Week in Review: Diverging Oil Price Predictions and Rising Junk Yields, Edition

By: HaleStewart

One of the central debates occurring within the Fed regards the causation of current inflation weakness. Some, like Fed President Bullard and Chairman Yellen argue low oil prices are solely responsible for the weakness. Ohers like President Brainard and Chicago Fed President Evans see a more nuanced picture involving declining international trade negatively impacting a wide swath of commodity prices. Read more

International Economic Week in Review: A General Tenor of Malaise, Edition

By: HaleStewart

In A Hard Look at a Soft Global Economy, author Michael Spence outlines the primary issues facing the global economy. He begins by noting that since the end of the crisis, the world issued $57 trillion in debt to fuel growth. And potential deflation makes repayment of that figure more difficult. Read more

Weekly Indicators: the intensified deflationary pulse continues edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

Monthly data for November included a decline in both consumer confidence measures. October data included an increase in new home sales although not to a new peak, and a decline in existing home sales. Personal income and spending both rose. Durable goods orders rose. Read more

Corporate profits as a leading indicator for stock prices: Q3 profits update

By: New_Deal_democrat

This is an update as to a relationship I have written about a number of times already. See, e.g., http://community.xe.com/blog/xe-market-analysis/corporate-profits-leadin... The relationship is straightforward: if corporate profits are a long leading indicator for the economy, and stock prices are a short leading indicator, then logically corporate profits should lead stock prices at least in terms of direction, if not necessarily in terms of volatility. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Nov 27, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar rebounded from Asia-session losses, led by a sharp rally in USD-CHF, which broke up an otherwise subdued session. USD-CHF suddenly surged by some 0.7% and EUR-CHF by 0.5%. The former punched above its Jan-7 peak and into territory not seen since August 2010, logging a high at 1.0328, and the latter broke through range highs seen over the last month and clocked a six-month peak at 1.0926. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Nov 27, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar is trading moderately softer following a subdued pre-Europe session in Asia. EUR-USD is showing a 0.2% gain, at 1.0630, having broken above yesterday's peak, and USD-JPY is showing a decline of similar magnitude, trading below 122.40, having broken below yesterday's low. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Nov 26, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

Inactive is the word that best sums up the day, both it terms of volume and direction. The G3 currencies were showing less than a 0.2% net divergence at the London close, with the dollar virtually net unchanged versus the euro and sterling, and just shy of 0.2% down on the yen. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Nov 26, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD has posted less than a 30 pip range on the day so far. The low has been 1.0600, which now has the feel of being a firm near-term support. Volumes and impetus lacking with both U.S. markets and date out of the picture today. EUR-USD was showing a 0.1% loss in the early European PM, and EUR-JPY 0.25% decline, though remaining above yesterday's 129.72 low. Read more


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