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XE Market Analysis: Asia - Dec 05, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar struggled through the N.Y. session on Monday, posting highs early in the session before fading lower into the close. EUR-USD appeared to benefit from a fairly pronounced short-squeeze, making its way to highs just under 1.0800. USD-JPY meanwhile, failed to breach last week's trend high, and fell to 113.16 lows from highs over 114.77. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Euro Rebounds After Italian Referendum Defeat

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW Italians voted 'no' by a larger than expected margin, with 59% of votes siding against Prime Minister Renzi's proposed reforms, leading to him resigning. Markets initially reacted negatively to the news, but have since recovered their losses. The Eurozone services PMI dipped slightly to 53.8, but combined with the strong manufacturing PMI, it pointed to the fastest pace of growth this year. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Dec 05, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The euro dove in early Asia before rebounding strongly during the European AM. EUR-USD was showing 0.4% gain after declines of more than 1% at the lows, while EUR-JPY has gone from a 1%-plus loss to a 1.0%-plus rise. While markets are cementing in expectations for the ECB to extend its QE program following the resounding "No" vote at Italy's referendum on constitutional reform, markets are also anticipating that the Fed will go easier on the tightening pedal, which tipped the dollar lower. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Dec 05, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The euro pared losses after diving by over 1% versus the yen and euro in early Asia. News that Italian PM Renzi suffered a resounding defeat in the weekend referendum on constitutional reform spooked markets, though in Austria the far right and with it anti-EU forces suffered an equally convincing defeat in the weekend's presidential election, with the new President elect Alexander Van der Bellen stressing that he would be an "a pro-European president" and a signal that the populist wave may have a limit in Europe (a by-election in the UK last week hinted at this too). Read more

US Bond Market Week in Review: A Rate Hike Is In the Cards, Edition

By: HaleStewart

Numerous Fed Governors have correctly observed that both unemployment and inflation levels support a rate hike. Unemployment is 4.6%; core CPI is 2.1% while total CPI is 1.6%. But an ancillary question all Fed governors must answer is, “can the economy absorb an interest rate increase?” Granted, a 25 basis point hike from the 50 BP level will probably not lead to a recession. Read more

US Equity and Economic Review: A Solid Week of News

By: HaleStewart

US news was very positive this week. The second estimate for 3rd quarter GDP increased .3% to 3.2%. Personal incomes and spending continued to rise as well. Durable goods, which have been weak due to the oil market collapse, increased for the second consecutive month. Read more

International Economic Week in Review: Oil Prices Might Reduce Deflationary Pressures, Edition

By: HaleStewart

This week’s most important international economic development was OPEC’s agreement to limit production. As with all OPEC agreements, there are many details that could potentially unravel the consensus. But the markets sent oil prices rallying, with the price of West Texas Intermediate Crude rising over 12% on the week. Read more

Whither housing in 2017?

By: New_Deal_democrat

This has been a heckuva year for interest rates, which made in some cases new all-time lows in July, only to see 10 year US treasuries rise more than 1% off that bottom intraday this past week. If anything, interest rates are the longest of long leading indicators, because they affect housing so acutely. Read more

Weekly Indicators: the broad US$ joins interest rates as a negative edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

Almost all of the monthly data for November and October was positive, including job growth, a decline in the unemployment rate, ISM manufacturing, the Chicago PMI, consumer confidence, personal income and spending, and construction spending. Only motor vehicle sales declined slightly. Read more


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