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XE Market Analysis: Asia - May 23, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

FX trade was relatively uneventful in N.Y. trade on Monday, with EUR-USD ranging between 1.1188 and 1.1224, holding above seven week lows of 1.1180. USD-JPY was the dollar's weak link, as it fell to 109.12 from over 109.55 on the back of sagging risk taking levels and uncertainty over futures BoJ policy moves. Read more

The Next Recession

By: New_Deal_democrat

No, I"m not calling for it yet. In fact the risk of recession at least through the end of this year appears to be fading fast. But inevitably, the next one is out there. And as we are past mid-cycle in this expansion, the shadowy outlines of that recession are in my opinion beginning to take shape. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - May 23, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD has continued to ply a narrow range just north of 1.1200, steadying after posting fairly steep losses last week (which completed a run of three consecutive weekly losses). Lower Bund yields following sub-forecast PMI data out of the Eurozone cast little impact. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - May 23, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The yen has traded moderately firmer today, showing about a 0.25% gain versus both the dollar and euro as London interbank people take to their desks. Lower stock markets across the Asia region, as investors continue to face prospects for a Fed rate hike as soon as the June 15th-16th FOMC, have underpinned the yen via the usual inverse correlative pattern. Read more

International Economic Week in Review: Three Central Banks Release Minutes

By: HaleStewart

This week, three central banks released meeting minutes. The ECB reported on a fairly positive internal environment, while, for the first time in recent memory, the RBA focused on inflation. The Fed strongly hinted at a June rate hike. The remainder of the news was mostly positive. For the first time in recent memory, Japanese economic news was positive. Read more

US Bond Market Week in Review: The Fed Takes A Hawkish Tone

By: HaleStewart

On Wednesday, the Fed released the minutes from their latest meeting. The commentary was generally upbeat. Participants viewed the labor market favorably, citing low unemployment, improving labor force participation and several anecdotal sources for support. Read more

US Equity and Economic Review: Just Not Feeling the the Warm Fuzzies From the Macro Data

By: HaleStewart

On Friday, the Conference Board released the latest leading and coincident indicators. The LEIs increased .6% while the CEIs rose .3%. The report's internals were strong: 9/10 LEIs were higher while all 4 CEIs advanced – even industrial production, which declined in 4 of the last 6 months. Read more

Weekly Indicators: an appearance by the ghosts of 2015 edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

April data reported this week included a "hot" CPI reading of +0.4%. All of the other reports were positive, including a pop in the Leading Indicators, an increase in industrial production and capacity utilization, an increase in housing permits and starts, and existing home sales. My usual note: I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good Now-cast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - May 20, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar started out on a softer footing in N.Y. trade on Friday, though managed to recover some ground following better U.S. existing home sales data. With the Fed watching the data to make its rate hike determination at the June meeting, the FX market can be expected to become sensitized to incoming figures, and we look for more exaggerated reaction to the data going forward. Read more


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