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US Bond Market Week in Review: A Rate Hike Is In the Cards, Edition

By: HaleStewart

Numerous Fed Governors have correctly observed that both unemployment and inflation levels support a rate hike. Unemployment is 4.6%; core CPI is 2.1% while total CPI is 1.6%. But an ancillary question all Fed governors must answer is, “can the economy absorb an interest rate increase?” Granted, a 25 basis point hike from the 50 BP level will probably not lead to a recession. Read more

US Equity and Economic Review: A Solid Week of News

By: HaleStewart

US news was very positive this week. The second estimate for 3rd quarter GDP increased .3% to 3.2%. Personal incomes and spending continued to rise as well. Durable goods, which have been weak due to the oil market collapse, increased for the second consecutive month. Read more

International Economic Week in Review: Oil Prices Might Reduce Deflationary Pressures, Edition

By: HaleStewart

This week’s most important international economic development was OPEC’s agreement to limit production. As with all OPEC agreements, there are many details that could potentially unravel the consensus. But the markets sent oil prices rallying, with the price of West Texas Intermediate Crude rising over 12% on the week. Read more

Whither housing in 2017?

By: New_Deal_democrat

This has been a heckuva year for interest rates, which made in some cases new all-time lows in July, only to see 10 year US treasuries rise more than 1% off that bottom intraday this past week. If anything, interest rates are the longest of long leading indicators, because they affect housing so acutely. Read more

Weekly Indicators: the broad US$ joins interest rates as a negative edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

Almost all of the monthly data for November and October was positive, including job growth, a decline in the unemployment rate, ISM manufacturing, the Chicago PMI, consumer confidence, personal income and spending, and construction spending. Only motor vehicle sales declined slightly. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Dec 02, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The November U.S. jobs report was perhaps not as good as some were expecting, though was certainly good enough to keep a December Fed rate hike fully priced in. Yields and the dollar however, moved lower through most of the session, leaving EUR-USD at two-plus week highs of 1.0675. Read more

XE Market Analysis: U.S Unemployment Falls to A Nine-Year Low

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW Sources at the ECB said they are likely to extend their bond purchases beyond March, with discussion over whether to reduce the monthly amount. Canadian employment increased by 10.7k in November, beating forecasts for a decline of 15k. 178,000 jobs were added in the U.S in November, higher than expected after 202,000 jobs were added the month previous. HIGHLIGHT Unemployment in the U.S. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Dec 01, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar rallied early in the session following stronger manufacturing ISM data, though spent most of the remaining session fading lower. The NASDAQ took another hit, apparently as Trump's potential trade policies hurt tech shares, while yields rose. Read more

Weekly Indicators for November 21 - 25

By: New_Deal_democrat

[Note: XE had a software glitch preventing me from posting this last Saturday.] Monthly data for October was positive with the exception of new home sales, which declined. Durable goods orders increased. The advance reading of inventories showed a decline, which is good. Read more


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