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XE Market Analysis: Asia - Aug 29, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar started on a firmer footing in N.Y. trade on Monday, though gave back some gains through the session. Benign PCE price data may have reduced expectations for a September rate hike, which supported Wall Street, and weighed on Treasury yields. Read more

Updeated Q2 2016 look at corporate profits as a long leading indicator

By: New_Deal_democrat

Corporate profits are one of the long leading indicators, typically peaking more than a year before the start of a recession. Since these were reported for Q2 last Friday, let's take a look. The graph below shows corporate profits with and without inventory adjustment: Typically these move in tandem. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Aug 29, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar held firm in thin London-less trade, reflecting improved odds for Fed tightening in the wake of Friday's batch of Fed speakers. EUR-USD clocked a two-week low of 1.1177, while USD-JPY extended to a 20-day high of 102.39 after being given an added lift after BoJ Governor Kuroda, who said at the weekend that there was still plenty of space for further monetary easing in Japan. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Aug 29, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar continued to trade firmer in early-week trade. EUR-USD clocked a two-week low of 1.1177, while USD-JPY extended Friday's post-Fedspeak gains, making to a 20-day peak of 102.35. Fed Chair Yellen said Friday, to recap, that the case for a rate hike "has strengthened," although there was still "data dependency," while Vice Chair Fischer indicated this Friday's jobs report could be crucial for the policy decision at the September 20th-21st FOMC. Read more

US Equity and Economic Review: We're Probably Going a Bit Lower From Here

By: HaleStewart

Housing news was mixed. New home sales increased 12.4% M/M and 31.3% Y/Y. This is one of the strongest gains for this series during this expansion. But existing home sales fell 3.2% M/M and 1.6% Y/Y. The following chart, which converts both figures to base 100, compares the 2 figures for the last 12 months: Both are still significantly off their post-recession lows. Read more

International Economic Week in Review: A Slow News Week

By: HaleStewart

     This was another light week of international news, most likely reflecting the “summer doldrums.”  The overall pace of activity begins to increase next week as traders return from summer vacations. Read more

US Bond Market Week in Review: Yellen Can Expect Support From Cleveland President Mester

By: HaleStewart

This week, Fed President Yellen stated we could expect at least one rate hike soon. Yellen can expect support for that policy prescription from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester who is one of the more hawkish Fed members. Mester made her opinions clear in a speech on July 13, given in Australia where Mester made the following observations about the economy: In my view, the underlying fundamentals supporting the U.S. Read more

Weekly Indicators: volatile regional Fed indexes more sour edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

July data included new home sales, up to a new post-recession high, existing home sales, which declined, and durable goods orders, which increased. In the rear view mirror, Q2 corporate profits increased or decreased depending on whether or not inventory adjustments were included (but in either case were higher than Q4 2015). My usual note: I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good Now-cast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Aug 26, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

Markets were jerked around following Fed chief Yellen's Jackson Hole Speech, and subsequent comments from Fed VC Fischer. Yellen indicated the case for a rate hike had strengthened, while at the same time said inflation targets wouldn't be met for "the next few years". Read more


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