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Weekly Indicators: bank lending rates turn more strongly negative edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

In the rear view mirror, Q2 GDP increased a weak +1.2%, while Q2 employment costs increased (a boon for workers). July data started with another solid Chicago PMI report. Monthly June data included an increase in new home sales and house prices, and declines in both consumer confidence measures and a negative durable goods report. My usual note: I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good Now-cast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jul 29, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar nosedived on the much weaker than expected Q2 U.S. GDP report, sending EUR-USD to highs of 1.1197 from pre-data levels near 1.1000. USD-JPY, already smacked-down by tepid BoJ easing efforts, fell further, basing at 102.13 from near 103.40. Even the beleaguered pound rallied, with cable touching 1.3300 before pulling back again. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Oil Prices Slump

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW The Japanese Yen surged by almost 2% following the Bank of Japan's meeting. U.S. economic growth remained weak in the second quarter. It rose just 1.2% annualized after a downwardly revised 0.8% in the first quarter. The Canadian economy shrank more than expected in May with GDP falling 0.6%, its biggest decline since March 2009 while wildfires in Alberta caused a sharp drop in oil extraction. Eurozone GDP data showed the economy slowed sharply in the previous quarter, growing just 0.3% which was in line with expectations. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jul 29, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

A surge in the yen provided the main action today after expected BoJ stimulus disappointed market expectations, even though the central bank governor, Kuroda, subsequently stated that monetary policy hasn't reached its limits yet, and with the statement saying there is to be a detailed review at the September meeting. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jul 29, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The yen surged after the BoJ under-delivered today following its policy meeting. USD-JPY slumped nearly three big figures, hitting a 17-day low of 102.72 from a high of 105.63. Yen volatility, already at an eight-year peak, is likely to remain high. Hopes for more easing in September may keep the Japanese currency from climbing to 100. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jul 28, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar started the N.Y. session on a softer footing on Thursday, though perked up some as the day unfolded. EUR-USD managed highs of 1.1108 before slipping back under 1.1070 into the close. USD-JPY meanwhile, bottomed at 104.68 at mid-morning, then rallied to 105.20 highs on pre-BoJ short covering. Read more

Good news for both single family and apartment housing

By: New_Deal_democrat

Housing is the most positive aspect of the US economy right now, but prices and rents are a real concern. Housing permits and new home sales are two of the best long leading indicators there are. Here's the long term view: Single family permits have continued to climb slowly (blue in the graph below), and new single family home sales (red) just set another post-recession record: This is confirmed by the continuing rise in purchase mortgage applications: The only fly in the ointment - and it is a significant one longer term - is that the failure of mortgage rates to set new lows means that refinancing remains somnolent: (h/t Mortgage News Daily: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com) Refinancing has been a tool of middle class coping for 35 years, and this source of additional income is about tapped out. Meanwhile, as I have often pointed out, sales (new home sales, blue) lead prices (Case Shiller Index, red): I expect house prices to continue to rise over the next year. Condos and apartments are something of a substitute good, as well as a place for young adults to start. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Spain's Unemployment Drops to 20%

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW The Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold last night. German unemployment fell more than expected in July and the jobless rate in Europe's biggest economy remained at a record low of 6.1%. Eurozone economic sentiment rose unexpectedly in July, despite the anticipated negative impact on the economy by Brexit. A UK consumer confidence index plunged nearly 5 points to 106.6 in July - matching its biggest fall in six years. HIGHLIGHT Spain's unemployment rate fell to 20% in the second quarter, its lowest in nearly six years, fueled by a tourism boom and three years of solid economic growth. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jul 28, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar continued its post-FOMC weak spell. EUR-USD lifted to a 13-day high of 1.1119. The Fed statement stated that near-term risks to the economy had reduced, but expressed no sign of urgency to tighten. This was followed up by forecast beating German labour and Eurozone ESI sentiment data today, joining German Ifo business confidence and preliminary Eurozone PMI data showing that the fallout from the UK's decision to leave the EU is mostly impacting UK economic activity. Read more

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