Home > XE Currency Blog > XE Currency Blog - Market Analysis & Forex News

AD

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Dec 06, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar firmed up some in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, though only by a bit overall. The dollar index was up about 0.4% to 100.60, after briefly dipping under the 100 mark in London. Incoming U.S. data was USD positive, with factory orders hitting a 1.5 year high. Read more

2017: a late-cycle year of inflation?

By: New_Deal_democrat

It appears that 2017 is setting up as a typical late cycle year of inflation. That's certainly what the long bond seems to expect: But there are other reasons to think that inflation may be about to hit a recent high. To begin with, over the last 8 months, prices have increased 1.7%, or roughly a 2.5% annualized rate: To a large extent, this is about oil and gas prices normalizing as shown on the below graph of gas's YoY% change: Additionally, CPI for shelter has been increasing at over 3% a year: Since house prices tend to follow sales, and house sales have made new highs in the last few months, that suggests that house price inflation might also accelerate: As I wrote several weeks ago, we may be coming in for a good spate of employment numbers, including a decline in the unemployment rate, and this will add to some wage pressure: So there is good reason to believe that the inflation rate is going to increase significantly over 2% next year. Read more

XE Market Analysis: German Industrial Orders Surge

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW Last month the U.S. service sector saw activity growth increase at its fastest pace in over a year with the PMI jumping to 57.2 from 54.8 in October. The U.S. trade deficit widened to $42.6 billion in October as exports fell. Australia's central bank kept interest rates on hold at 1.5% as expected. South Africa's economy grew just 0.2% in the third quarter as manufacturing declined more than expected. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Dec 05, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar struggled through the N.Y. session on Monday, posting highs early in the session before fading lower into the close. EUR-USD appeared to benefit from a fairly pronounced short-squeeze, making its way to highs just under 1.0800. USD-JPY meanwhile, failed to breach last week's trend high, and fell to 113.16 lows from highs over 114.77. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Euro Rebounds After Italian Referendum Defeat

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW Italians voted 'no' by a larger than expected margin, with 59% of votes siding against Prime Minister Renzi's proposed reforms, leading to him resigning. Markets initially reacted negatively to the news, but have since recovered their losses. The Eurozone services PMI dipped slightly to 53.8, but combined with the strong manufacturing PMI, it pointed to the fastest pace of growth this year. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Dec 05, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The euro dove in early Asia before rebounding strongly during the European AM. EUR-USD was showing 0.4% gain after declines of more than 1% at the lows, while EUR-JPY has gone from a 1%-plus loss to a 1.0%-plus rise. While markets are cementing in expectations for the ECB to extend its QE program following the resounding "No" vote at Italy's referendum on constitutional reform, markets are also anticipating that the Fed will go easier on the tightening pedal, which tipped the dollar lower. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Dec 05, 2016

By: XE Market Analysis

The euro pared losses after diving by over 1% versus the yen and euro in early Asia. News that Italian PM Renzi suffered a resounding defeat in the weekend referendum on constitutional reform spooked markets, though in Austria the far right and with it anti-EU forces suffered an equally convincing defeat in the weekend's presidential election, with the new President elect Alexander Van der Bellen stressing that he would be an "a pro-European president" and a signal that the populist wave may have a limit in Europe (a by-election in the UK last week hinted at this too). Read more

US Bond Market Week in Review: A Rate Hike Is In the Cards, Edition

By: HaleStewart

Numerous Fed Governors have correctly observed that both unemployment and inflation levels support a rate hike. Unemployment is 4.6%; core CPI is 2.1% while total CPI is 1.6%. But an ancillary question all Fed governors must answer is, “can the economy absorb an interest rate increase?” Granted, a 25 basis point hike from the 50 BP level will probably not lead to a recession. Read more

US Equity and Economic Review: A Solid Week of News

By: HaleStewart

US news was very positive this week. The second estimate for 3rd quarter GDP increased .3% to 3.2%. Personal incomes and spending continued to rise as well. Durable goods, which have been weak due to the oil market collapse, increased for the second consecutive month. Read more

Pages

Paste link in email or IM