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This week’s news was mostly positive, but there were a few areas of weakness. The EU is beginning its second straight year of growth while Australia continues its nearly 20-year run of economic expansion. For the UK, however, concerns are mounting that Brexit will not end well. Read more
There are several ways to classify Federal Reserve governors. The most common is obviously hawks and doves, with the former arguing for rate increases to pre-emptively slow inflationary pressures while the latter are willing to let the economy run a bit hotter, allowing inflation to increase. Read more
This week’s news continued to show the US economy is expanding at a consistently modest pace. The latest Beige Book describes broadly positive economic news. Industrial production – a key coincident indicator – expanded, although this should be seen in the broader context of a fairly weak numbers for this expansion. Read more
September data included a negative reading of the leading economic indicators. If you take out the heightened initial jobless claims number due to the hurricanes, they were flat. Housing permits declined, but starts rose slightly. Existing home sales also rose slightly. Read more
OVERVIEW South African Rand slumps on rumors over sacking the deputy president. Kiwi Dollar continues to weaken after the formation of a coalition government earlier in the week. Sterling is weak as doubts arise over future interest rate hikes. US Dollar is higher as progress is made on tax reform. Read more
The dollar has rallied across the board, up 0.4% versus the euro and by 0.7% against the yen, following news that the U.S. Senate had passed a budget blueprint that will help push forward the Republican party's planned $1.5 tln tax cut. The news came after the close of Wall Street, and sparked a rally in U.S. Read more
The dollar has rallied across the board, up 0.3% versus the euro and by 0.6% against the yen, following news that the U.S. Senate had passed a budget blueprint that will help push forward the Republican party's planned $1.5 tln tax cut. The news came after the close of Wall Street, and sparked a rally in U.S. Read more
The dollar faded in early N.Y. trade on Thursday, despite slower than expected jobless claims and a better than forecast Philly Fed index. Risk-off conditions prevailed, which soured USD sentiment to a degree. Trading ranges overall were relatively narrow however. Read more
Let me start with two introductory comments: Fist, one disagrees with Bill McBride at one's peril with regard to housing, but I am unable to share in his continued optimistic outlook. Housing sales are driven by three primary factors: 1. Housing moves inversely, with a lag, to interest rates. 2. Read more
