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The dollar has been trading steadily so far today. USD-JPY settled around 100.50, modestly higher as JGB yields ebbed to a four-week low, and EUR-USD made time in a narrow range in the low 1.12s. There was some shifting on the crosses, with AUD-NZD edging out a six-week high and EUR-GBP a two-session low at 0.8609. Read more
A quiet day in FX Land on Tuesday saw the dollar firm up versus most major currencies in morning dealings, before turning largely sideways. Better U.S. consumer confidence helped dollar sentiment, as did risk-on conditions on Wall Street, apparently the result of perceptions that Clinton won the debate, which translates into status quo for markets. Read more
OVERVIEW New home sales in the U.S. fell less than expected in August and the overall trend remains positive. Deutsche Bank shares continue to hit record lows affecting risk sentiment across the market. German two-year bond yields hit a record low as fear grows over the health of the country's largest bank. HIGHLIGHT The first presidential debate saw Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump trade blows over policies on the economy, trade, and immigration. Read more
Markets decided that Clinton had the edge in the first presidential debate of the campaign, which prompted rallies in the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar given Trump's anti-NAFTA stance and generally protectionist views on trade. The peso was off its highs but was showing just over a 1.5% advance on the dollar as of the early European PM session. Read more
The Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar rallied on what appears to be a generally perceived victory, at least from the perspective of financial markets, for Clinton in the first presidential debate of the campaign. Trump's protectionist views on trade (he said during the debate that NAFTA was the worse trade deal that the U.S. Read more
Risk-off conditions weighed on the dollar through the N.Y. morning session on Monday, though the unit bounced some following the London close. USD-JPY remained heavy into the close however, printing 100.25 lows. EUR-USD topped at 1.1279, though eased back under 1.1260, with the announcement of Italy's constitutional referendum (December 4) prompting some position squaring. Read more
Normally the most reliable indicator for the housing market is permits, because it tends to slightly lead starts, and is much less volatile. Because of distortions in May and June 2015 all due to NYC, it has not been the case since then (although it should become more reliable again by next year, and the distorted YoY comparisons fade): New home sales have more often than not peaked before housing permits, but they too are more volatile and often heavily revised: So this morning's report on new home sales is particularly helpful. Read more
OVERVIEW Due to concerns over the Deutsche Bank’s financial health, shares across Europe have fallen. Germany's IFO Institute reported that companies were "clearly more optimistic" in September as their business climate index rose to 109.5, it’s highest since May. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said that the bank is ready to use every available tool to achieve its 2% inflation target however, a stronger Yen continues to act against their efforts. HIGHLIGHT The Pound is under pressure again as the negative risk sentiment fuels concerns over the recent Brexit-related headlines, sending the Pound down towards post-Brexit lows. US DOLLAR The Dollar is slightly weaker as investors position themselves cautiously ahead of tonight's first presidential debates. Read more
The dollar traded generally weaker, losing over 0.5% to the yen, which outperformed amid a risk-off backdrop. USD-JPY fell to a 100.38 low, and EUR-USD a two-session high of 1.1281, aided by a much stronger than expected September German Ifo business expectations survey. Read more
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New home sales have more often than not peaked before housing permits, but they too are more volatile and often heavily revised:
So this morning's report on new home sales is particularly helpful.&p[images][0]=/s3/files/styles/large/s3/image_800.jpg?itok=CuORnG9C){kind=link}