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US Equity and Economic Review: It's Just a Correction, Nothing More

By: HaleStewart

     The housing market continues to grow.  New home sales increased 6.1% M/M and 12.8% Y/Y.  While existing home sales declined 3.7% M/M they rose 12.8% Y/Y.  The following chart places these figures into a longer-term context: Read more

International Economic Week in Review: Edging Higher

By: HaleStewart

Earlier in the week, Gavyn Davies at the FT published a story that theorized about potential ways that the latest expansion could end. According to him, these three options represent the highest possibilities: Demand side secular stagnation (associated with the ideas of Lawrence Summers); Positive demand shocks combined with supply side weakness, leading to inflation pressure (associated with concerns expressed by Janet Yellen about the risk of raising US interest rates too slowly); and A downturn in the financial super cycle (associated with the thinking of Claudio Borio at the BIS). Davies compares and contrasts all three, offering the reader insight into what might be in store. Read more

US Bond Market Week in Review: Gradual Lift-Off Has Begun

By: HaleStewart

The Fed’s consensus is now for additional rate hikes. Cleveland President Mester – who is a non-voting member – argued for 3 rate hikes this year in addition to a reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet. Chicago Fed President Evans – who does vote on interest rate policy – is arguing for 2 additional hikes. Read more

Weekly Indicators: almost no negatives edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

February data included a decrease in existing home sales, but an increase in the more economically important new home sales. Durable goods orders increased, although "core" durable goods decreased slightly. My usual note: I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good Now-cast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Mar 24, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

FX Trade was nervous in N.Y. on Friday, though ranges overall were relatively narrow, and the dollar mixed. Uncertainty over the outcome of the House healthcare bill was behind the market chop, with wrangling going on between House leadership and the White House through most of the session. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Eurozone Business Growth Fastest in 6 Years

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW BoE policymaker Vlieghe's comments dampen rate increase prospects causing Pound to give back gains. The US Dollar is steady as we wait for another vote on the new healthcare legislation later today. Euro strengthens on Purchasing Managers survey report of buoyancy in the service and manufacturing sectors. The Japanese Yen had its strongest run since 2010 against the US Dollar as investors seek the safe haven currency. HIGHLIGHT The European economy continues to show further evidence of recovery with the Purchasing Manager's Index reporting Eurozone businesses growing at their fastest pace in nearly 6 years. US DOLLAR The US Dollar remains stable across the board while we wait for another vote on healthcare where President Trump suggested a 'take it or leave it' deal. Read more

Positive trends in most housing sales indicators continue

By: New_Deal_democrat

With the exception of existing home sales, the least important metric, the housing market continues to show surprising strength in the face of rising interest rates. Last week housing permits and starts were reported. Permits fell, while the more volatile starts rose: Neither set a post-recession record, although the three month moving average of starts, which takes away most of the volatility, did make another post-recession high. Yesterday morning new single family home sales were reported. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Mar 24, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar lost ground to an outperforming euro following forecast-beating PMI data out of the Eurozone, ebbed back to near net unchanged levels versus the yen after clocking a two-day high during the Tokyo session, and held generally tight ranges versus most other currencies. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Mar 24, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has traded firmer along with Wall Street, recovering some of ground lost midweek. USD-JPY logged a two-session high at 111.48 and EUR-USD a two-session low at 1.0760. The USD index is up 0.4% from the seven-week low it logged on Wednesday. Markets are giving the benefit of the doubt to Trump's ultimatum on the ACA bill, the vote of which has been delayed to later on Friday from yesterday. Read more

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