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XE Market Analysis: North America - Feb 21, 2018

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar continued to hold firm. EUR-USD extended lower for a fourth consecutive session, logging a four-session low of 1.2307, which extends the correction from the 38-month high seen on Friday at 1.2556. The day's low was seen in the wake of the release of preliminary Eurozone February PMI survey data, which missed expectations and gave a presently bearish market a cue to sell. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Feb 21, 2018

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has remained buoyant, led by gains in USD-JPY, whicih lifted for a fourth straight session in logging a four-session high of 107.90, extending the rebound from the 15-month low seen last Thursday at 105.54. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses are also firmer, though by a lesser magnitude than USD-JPY, as a broader bid in the dollar has also been at play. Read more

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Adds to Gains

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW USD trading broadly higher. GBP higher on a report that the EU parliament will allow 'privileged' access to the single market. CAD weaker after dropping in wholesale trade. EUR softer after a drop in German ZEW survey. AUD flat after RBA minutes signal rates to remain on hold. SEK falls sharply after inflation miss. HIGHLIGHT The US Dollar is continuing its recovery from a three-year low hit last week with the Dollar index up 1.6% pointing towards a correction for the world's reserve currency. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Feb 20, 2018

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was fairly steady in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, leaving the DXY over its 20-day moving average of 89.43 through the day. There was no U.S. data to drive the FX market, though trend high Treasury yields helped the greenback generally. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.2320 before edging higher, while USD-JPY was steady, maintaining altitude over 107.00. Read more

How much must interest rates spike for the economy to roll over?

By: New_Deal_democrat

Interest rates are the most potent background long leading indicators. Last week I wrote that I did not see them as having risen enough at this time to cause a recession, and noted that I thought they had to rise to at least about 3.25%, and for a sufficient period of time. Here's why. The below is a graph of 10 year treasury yields over the last five years, minus 2.6%, so that a 2.6% yield shows as zero: Note that the 2013 "taper tantrum" caused yields to rise over 2.6% for about 1 year, from midyear 2013 to midyear 2014, and to a maximum of just over 3%. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Feb 20, 2018

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has been in rebound mode after making fresh major-trend lows on Friday, gaining yesterday in the absence of North American and a number of major Asian markets, and extending further upward today. The gain was concomitant with market narratives talking about the rise in 2-year Treasury yields to near 10-year highs (which has been seen ahead of the auction of 2-year notes later today). Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Feb 20, 2018

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar continued to hold firm, extending the same theme for a second day. This came with 2-year U.S. Treasury yields rising to a near 10-year high in Asia today, and with stock market sentiment having soured somewhat following a week-long rebound. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Feb 19, 2018

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar traded generally firmer today in low volumes with a number of Asian nations enjoying public holidays today, including China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. North American markets will also be absent today. EUR-USD logging a two-session low of 1.2392, and USD-JPY recouped above 106.60, extending a rebound from Friday's 15-month low at 105.52. Read more

US Economic Week in Review: Some Disappointing Coincidental Numbers

By: HaleStewart

This was a mixed week for U.S. economic data. One leading indicator – the 4-week moving average of unemployment claims – was positive. But while the headline number for building permits was very strong (+7.4%), a huge jump in multi-unit structures (5+ unit permits rose 25%) were responsible for the increase. Read more

US Bond Market Week in Review: An Overblown Inflation Fear

By: HaleStewart

At this point, I almost feel unqualified to talk about inflation and inflationary pressures in the economy. I have, after all, spent the better part of the last 4-5 years discussing the possibility of deflation or, more specifically, weak pricing pressures. Read more


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