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US Economic Week in Review: The Economy Ends the Year on a Strong Note

By: HaleStewart

The BEA released their last GDP estimate of the US economy earlier this week. The report showed that the economy is doing very well. On a Y/Y basis, topline growth was 2.3%, which continues the quarterly increase in this number. Individual components were also very strong. Read more

US Bond Market Year in Review: A Narrowing Curve, No Stress and No Inflation

By: HaleStewart

It’s been a very busy year in the bond market. The treasury spread – which no one has discussed since the end of the recession – jumped back into the headlines as the 10-2 differential broke 100 basis points; other spreads came in to varying degrees. Read more

Weekly Indicators: spreads fall to 10 year low edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

November housing data was all strongly positive, including permits, starts, and new and existing home sales. Partly as a result of that, the Index of Leading Indicators increased. Personal income and spending were up, but at the expense of a decline in the savings rate. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Dec 22, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

Narrow ranges have prevailed so far today, which will more than likely remain the case with market participants non-committal so close to the holiday period and year-end. USD-JPY has settled around the 113.25-25 mark after yesterday clocking a 10-day high of 110.63. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Dec 22, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

Currencies are likely to remain range bound as market participants will be non-committal into the holiday period. The yen, while steady today, has been finishing the year on a softening tack. 'Abenomic' policies remain in full swing, with the cabinet today approving a stimulus budget, and with the BoJ having signalled yesterday that it is in no rush to exit from crisis-mode monetary stimulus. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Dec 21, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar index pulled back from the 93.50 level at the N.Y. open, to a base of 93.26, in relatively light trade. In coming U.S. data weighed on the greenback to an extent, as Q3 GDP was revised slightly lower, and jobless claims rose more than expected. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Dec 21, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar majors have posted narrow ranges, though USD-JPY still managed to eke out a nine-day high of 113.63, which caps a third straight day of gains. The BoJ left policy unchanged at its final policy meeting of the year, noting that the economy will continue its "moderate expansion," but signalling that it was in no rush to remove crisis-mode stimulus. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Dec 21, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar saw little impact from the tax bill votes, which passed in both the House of Reps and the Senate (which took place just earlier in the case of the latter, in the early hours of Wednesday on Capitol Hill). The House will re-vote later today due to procedural irregularities in the vote yesterday, and is expected to pass. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Dec 20, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar index fell to 12-session lows of 93.17 during the N.Y. session on Tuesday, before recovering marginally over 93.25 into the close. The greenback got little juice from the U.S. House passage of the tax reform bill, barely reacting to the news. Read more

The housing slowdown of 2017 is over; quantifying the demographic tailwind

By: New_Deal_democrat

As I noted last weekend, as is so often the case housing is frequently the decisive element among the long leading indicators, and particularly so when moneys supply and bond yields are giving us such conflicting signals. Yesterday's report on housing permits and starts put that to rest, as for the second month, permits were higher than at any previous time during this expansion, as did the three month average of starts: and single family permits made another new high: Interestingly, the surge in housing is not occurring so much in the hurricane-ravaged South, but rather in the West: There is no single state, e.g., California, which is responsible for this surge. Read more


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