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XE Market Analysis: UK Budget Unveils Need for Increased Borrowing

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW Chancellor Hammond plans to spend more over the next couple of years to offset the impact of Brexit. US consumer sentiment index dropped to 98.5 from 100.7 in October as we head towards the Thanksgiving holiday. The Euro demonstrates resilience despite the political uncertainty going into next year. HIGHLIGHT The UK budget gave first-time buyers a boost with the stamp duty being axed for up to £300k, while the economic growth estimate was downgraded. US DOLLAR The US Dollar is weaker in reaction to the dip in consumer confidence while the Nasdaq index opens at yet another record high. BRITISH POUND The Pound edged higher again against the Dollar as the investment into the economy by borrowing more has been generally accepted as a positive for the Sterling. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Nov 21, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was mostly sideways in N.Y. trade on Tuesday. with U.S. players winding activity down into Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday. EUR-USD was contained to a 1.1714 to 1.1751 trading band, while USD-JPY dipped early to 112.18 on reported Japanese selling, before settling near 112. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Aussie Dollar Bounces on RBA Comments

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW UK government borrowing slightly higher than expected. The Euro remains under pressure from German political situation. US home sales increased more than expected in October. HIGHLIGHT The Australian Dollar hit a fresh 5-month low overnight after the minutes from the central bank's last meeting warned of "considerable uncertainty" about how quickly wage growth and inflation might pick up, cementing expectations that interest rates will be on hold for some time to come. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Nov 21, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The main event today was market reactions to news on Sunday that talks to form a new coalition government in Germany had collapsed. The euro initially dove before rebounding, tracking German stock markets higher as markets fine tuned their response to the shifting political landscape in Germany following the collapse of coalition talks on Sunday. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Euro Weakens After German Coalition Talks Fail

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW British Pound is higher after news on the weekend increased financial settlement. The US Dollar is recovering some ground, doubts remain on tax reform. The Euro is weaker as German political risk and Draghi both weigh. The Turkish Lira is down over 1%, adding to Friday's losses. HIGHLIGHT The Euro fell sharply overnight after Angela Merkel’s efforts to form a government in Germany collapsed, leaving the Eurozone’s biggest economy in political limbo almost two months after its general election. Read more

October housing permits and starts indicatte slowdown ending

By: New_Deal_democrat

Last week's report on housing permits and starts was big news, because housing finally broke out to new highs, surpassing last winter's numbers, after a slowdown for 9 months. Let me tick off the highlights first: single family permits made a new expansion high single family starts made a new expansion high total permits were just shy of their expansion high from last winter the three month moving average of total starts, which smooths out volatility, made a new expansion high the number of units for which a permit has been issued, but which have not yet been started, made a new expansion high Let's take a more in-depth look, starting with permits. Read more

International Economic Week in Review: The Synchronous Expansion Continues

By: HaleStewart

Global economic news from the OECD big seven continues showing a world economy with link synchronous growth. The EU is entering its second year of above-trend growth. There’s no reason to believe this trend will not continue for the next 3 to 6 months. Read more

US Economic Week in Review: The Economy Is Humming Along Nicely

By: HaleStewart

The good news for the U.S. is that its economy continues to expand at a strong rate. This week, two coincident indicators – retail sales and industrial production – were released. Both grew strongly. After hurricane caused spikes, initial unemployment claims have returned to previously low levels. Read more

US Bond Market Week in Review: The Fed's Inflation Problem With Illustrations

By: HaleStewart

The Federal Reserve has an inflation problem. No, inflation is not too hot. In fact, it’s too cold. More importantly, the Fed continues to rgue inflation will eventually hit and maintain 2%. But the underlying trend says otherwise. First, the PCE implicit price deflator is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure (This document from the BEA explains the differences between this and CPI). Read more

Weekly Indicators: yield curve flatter but still positive edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

October data was almost all positive, including significant increases in housing permits and starts, a big jump in industrial production and capacity utilization, and increase in both nominal and real retail sales, and subdued consumer inflation. Producer prices did jump more than expected. My usual note: I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good Now-cast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. Read more


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