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(Relatively) cheap gas bringing lowest inflation rate siince the Great Recession

By: New_Deal_democrat

Since the middle of last year I have been using the change in the price of a gallon of gas to forecast that month's CPI in advance. My point has been, that all you really need to know about inflation is the price of gasoline. So far with one exception each forecast has turned out to be within 0.1% of the actual number. With all of January's and half of February's weekly E.I.A. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Feb 13, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The USD remained on a generally soft footing as stock markets sank in Asia and Europe, and with the S&P 500 future showing a 0.6% loss ahead of the Wall Street open today. There were some notable earnings misses from the European corporate front, while in Asia there were reports of Chinese trust fund defaults. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Feb 13, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The AUD took a hit on a disappointing jobs report out of Australia, while the JPY and safe haven CHF currency traded firmer as equities in Asia corrected after a run of six consecutive up days. There were reports in China of trust fund defaults. AUD-USD dove over a point to a 0.8927 and didn't see much of a bounce thereafter, holding below 0.8942 in the period since. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Feb 12, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar rallied versus the euro into the N.Y. open on the back of softer EU production data, and added modestly to gains early in the session. EUR-USD based at 1.3557, just above last Friday's low, before bouncing back toward 1.3600. USD-JPY remained near the top of its recent ranges, though with risk levels near neutral on the day, did not have the impetus to test up toward 103.00. Read more

Yellen To Use Broader Measure of Employment For Fed Decisions

By: HaleStewart

Yesterday was Janet Yellen's first offical testimony before Congress as the new head of the Fed. And while most of her testimony displayed a fair amount of continuity from the Bernanke years, there is one broad change: the Fed's usage of a broader measure of unemployment to determine Fed policy. The US has many unemployment measures, but the most popularly reported is the unemployment rate. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Feb 12, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD took a dive following weaker than expected Eurozone industrial production data, which declined 0.7% m/m in December. The euro dropped nearly 50 pips in making a low of 1.3587. EUR-JPY dipped to within a few pips of 139.00, which helped USD-JPY dip to around the 102.30 area. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Feb 12, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The AUD was the main mover out of the main currencies, rallying following a stock market friendly testimony from new Fed Chairperson Yellen, who signalled policy continuity, the passage of the debt ceiling vote in the U.S. House of Representatives, and unexpectedly strong China export data (which drove the surplus to $ 31.9 bln from $25.6 bln). Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Feb 11, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

Fed Chair Yellen indicated tapering is likely to continue in measured steps at future meetings, in her prepared testimony, though added it's not on a preset course. This was enough to take the dollar initially higher, though was dovish enough to allow Wall Street to rally sharply. Read more

OECD Leading Inidicators Point to Developed/Emerging Market Growth Divergence

By: HaleStewart

Above are several graphs that show the OECD's leading indicators for the EU, Japan and US. Notice that with the exception of China, all are moving higher at solid rates. This indicates developed markets are all expanding more or less in unison. Compare the developed market LEIs to the BRICs above. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Feb 11, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

There were no data of note out of Europe, and Japan was closed for a public holiday, but there was still some brisk activity in the main currency markets in which the USD traded softer. EUR-USD posted a 12-day peak of 1.3683, extending the gains seen following last Thursday's ECB unchanged policy announcement and Friday's U.S. Read more


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