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October housing permits and starts indicatte slowdown ending

By: New_Deal_democrat

Last week's report on housing permits and starts was big news, because housing finally broke out to new highs, surpassing last winter's numbers, after a slowdown for 9 months. Let me tick off the highlights first: single family permits made a new expansion high single family starts made a new expansion high total permits were just shy of their expansion high from last winter the three month moving average of total starts, which smooths out volatility, made a new expansion high the number of units for which a permit has been issued, but which have not yet been started, made a new expansion high Let's take a more in-depth look, starting with permits. Read more

International Economic Week in Review: The Synchronous Expansion Continues

By: HaleStewart

Global economic news from the OECD big seven continues showing a world economy with link synchronous growth. The EU is entering its second year of above-trend growth. There’s no reason to believe this trend will not continue for the next 3 to 6 months. Read more

US Economic Week in Review: The Economy Is Humming Along Nicely

By: HaleStewart

The good news for the U.S. is that its economy continues to expand at a strong rate. This week, two coincident indicators – retail sales and industrial production – were released. Both grew strongly. After hurricane caused spikes, initial unemployment claims have returned to previously low levels. Read more

US Bond Market Week in Review: The Fed's Inflation Problem With Illustrations

By: HaleStewart

The Federal Reserve has an inflation problem. No, inflation is not too hot. In fact, it’s too cold. More importantly, the Fed continues to rgue inflation will eventually hit and maintain 2%. But the underlying trend says otherwise. First, the PCE implicit price deflator is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure (This document from the BEA explains the differences between this and CPI). Read more

Weekly Indicators: yield curve flatter but still positive edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

October data was almost all positive, including significant increases in housing permits and starts, a big jump in industrial production and capacity utilization, and increase in both nominal and real retail sales, and subdued consumer inflation. Producer prices did jump more than expected. My usual note: I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good Now-cast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Nov 17, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar attempted a modest rally after better U.S. housing starts data, though given the backdrop of White House Subpoenas and doubts over the ability of the GOP to pass tax reform, ultimately faded to near rlows of the week. Wall Street lost ground as gold rallied, leaving the risk backdrop very soggy to end the week. Read more

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Ends on a Weak Note

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW US Dollar slips on a report that the Special Counsel subpoenaed Trump's election campaign for documents. Canadian inflation drops to 1.4% and weakens the Loonie. US Dollar slips as investors watch for progress on tax reform bill. Bitcoin hits an all-time high on software upgrade rumors. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Nov 17, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar is lower on reports about the Trump administration having last month been served a subpoena from the special council Mueller requesting documents relating to Russia, according to the WSJ. Separately, the House Judiciary Committee sent a letter to the attorney of Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and senior advisor, asking for more information about a "Russian backdoor overture and dinner invite." The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is presently showing a 0.3% loss, earlier logging a two-session low at 93.52. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Nov 17, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has been trading mixed so far today, losing ground to the yen, euro and sterling, while gaining versus the Australian dollar, other dollar bloc currencies, and most emerging market units. USD-JPY was the biggest mover, logging a one-month low at 112.39. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Nov 16, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

Generally soft incoming U.S. data weighed on the dollar early in the N.Y. session on Thursday, as import prices were soft, jobless claims higher than forecast, and the Philly Fed index falling more than expected. Stronger industrial production later supported the greenback, though it was later in the session that saw the unit move to session highs. Read more


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