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As the end of the year is upon us, it only seems natural to make predictions about the upcoming year. First, here is a link to my predictions from last year. If I do say so myself, they were generally very accurate. So, let’s start into 2014 predictions. The US will finally experience consistent growth about 2.75%. Read more
FX trade slowed to a crawl on the last day of the year in N.Y. dealings, leaving major dollar pairings overall just slightly lower through the session. EUR-USD was pushed back from the 1.3800 level, as USD-JPY gave back the 105 handle. Cable was firm under 1.6550, as USD-CHF slipped back under 0.8900. Read more
The USD majors saw little movement. Japan among other Asia centres were closed today, while in Europe Germany is off and London participants will be calling it a day shortly. EUR-USD briefed skirted above 1.3800 again, but once again tipped back under this level to consolidate at familiar regions around 1.3760-70. Read more
USD-JPY dipped under 105.00 in quiet trade with Japan out until next Monday. The pair has posted its biggest annual gain in 2013 since 1979, driven by yen weakness as a consequence of the 'Abenomics' drive to CPI from deflation to a 2% target. EUR-USD is fractionally lower, at 1.3791 bid just ahead of the European open, consolidating gains seen yesterday following relatively 'undovish' remarks from ECB President Draghi. Read more
Last week, I wrote an article tiled, Double Top for the EUR/USD? In it, I advanced the thesis that a convergence between technical factors (which tell us when to buy) and fundamental factors (which tell us what direction to trade a currency pair) had occurred. Read more
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With only one day left, let's take a look back at the important economic trends of 2013. If there was a theme, it was a year of muddling along, positive but still disappointingly subpar. In particular, there were notable changes in energy, housing, and interest rates. Here are 12 important economic stories of 2013, starting with five positives: 1. Read more
FX trade was uneventful in N.Y. on Monday, as the year wound down, and as desks stayed out of harms way. Conditions were thin, and the dollar did ease lower fairly broadly. EUR-USD reclaimed the 1.3800 handle, as USD-JPY faded, but found support into 105.00. Read more
The main currencies chopped around in thin conditions. The yen made a fresh trend high for a fourth consecutive trading day, at 105.41. There were reports of Japanese exporters on the offer, which helped cap the dollar ahead of the 105.50 level, and the pair subsequently sank to a low of 105.12 during the London morning. Read more
The yen made a fresh trend high for a fourth consecutive trading day, this time to 105.41, during the last business day of the year in Tokyo. There were reports of Japanese exporters on the offer, which helped cap the dollar ahead of the 105.50 level. Read more
November monthly data reported this past week included personal income and spending, both up, although spending was up more, durable goods orders, up strongly, new home sales, down slightly from its post-recession high last month, and U. Michigan consumer sentiment and outlook, both up. I report on the high frequency weekly indicators because they are an almost simultaneous "nowcast" of the economy, and although they can be noisy, taken together they will show a continuation or turning of a trend before it shows up in the monthly data. Read more
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