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The yen was the main mover in otherwise subdued conditions in pre-Europe trade in Asia. The Japanese currency sank as stocks and investor risk appetite rose, following the currency's normal correlation, which saw USD-JPY and EUR-JPY rise to respective five-day highs of 101.56 and 137.34. Read more
Every month, the ECB issues a report on EU economy. It's full of great detailed information. It also highlights underlying reasons why the EU is experiencing such slow growth, starting with the very weak M3 situation. M3 is the largest monetary aggregate, encompassing all other monetary base measures. Read more
Major dollar pairings were range bound in very quiet N.Y. dealings on Monday. There was no major data to drive markets, though geopolitically backed risk-off conditions weighed on equities and Treasury yields. EUR-USD was stuck inside a 1.3515-25 range through virtually the entire session, as USD-JPY managed a 101.27 to 101.35 trading band. Read more
The dollar recovered after an Asia session bout of weakness, which saw EUR-USD extend Friday's rebound from sub-1.35 level to a peak of 1.3549. The pair subsequently settled back to near net unchanged levels in the 1.3520s. Most other pairings remain comfortably within Friday's ranges, with market participants wary about the geopolitical tensions, which saw stocks trade lower in Europe. Read more
The dollar traded with a softer bias in generally light early-week trade, correcting some of the advances seen last week. EUR-USD recovered above 1.3540, but stalled shy of 1.3550. This followed the five-month low that was seen on Friday at 1.3491. Cable was also firmer, in the 1.7090s after seeing a 1.7036 low on Friday. Read more
Monthly June data included weakly positive retail sales and industrial production, and improving Empire State manufacturing. Capacity utilization declined slightly. University of Michigan consumer sentiment declined. There was a "hot" reading of producer prices. Read more
Let’s start this week on the far side of the globe, with Australia and Japan, largely because the news flow was light. For Japan, the big event was the BOJ keeping interest rates at .1%. They also released their latest meeting minutes, which had the following commentary regarding the consumer’s observed snapback from the recent sales tax increase: Private consumption remained resilient as a trend with improvement in the employment and income situation, although a subsequent decline in demand following the front-loaded increase prior to the consumption tax hike had been observed. Read more
The dollar posted gains in morning trade, taking EUR-USD to trend lows of 1.3492 from opening levels over 1.3530. USD-JPY moved up from 101.30 to highs near 101.45. Slightly softer Michigan sentiment and leading indicators had little impact on the market. Read more
The huge revision to 1Q US GDP growth took everyone by surprise. While most analysts (including myslelf) attributed the miss to weather related issues, others voiced the opinion that the number indicated the economy was clearly slowing. However, looking at the data released over the last few months indicates the US is on track to print a better 2Q GDP report. Let's start by looking at the four main coincident indicators -- industrial production, total non-farm employees, trade and manufacturing sales and income less transfer payments. I've made the trough of the recession the "100" for all of the main coincident indicators. Read more
The dollar was near net unchanged into the New York open against the euro, yen and other currencies. EUR-USD logged a new low of 1.3512 in Asia before turning firmer in early Europe, reaching the 1.3530-35 area before settling. The Jun-5 low at 1.3503 remains unchallenged amid talk of big buying interest at 1.3500 from reserve managers. Read more
