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A quiet session in pre-Europe Asia without much in the way of fresh data or other leads, which left the market to digest the stellar U.S. jobs report yesterday, which has seen some analysts (Barclays, for instance) to remark that Fed hikes are now closer. Read more
The dollar has rallied on the strong payrolls report for June, which was replete with strong back revisions. EUR-USD has broken the week's low at 1.3640, triggering stops through 1.3635 and looks set for a test of 1.3600. We anticipate further widening in T-note over Bund yield differentials, and expect EUR-USD to eventually move in on the May low at 1.3503. Read more
EUR-USD was little affected by Eurozone services data, which came in mixed at the national level and produced an unchanged 52.8 readings for both the final June pan-Eurozone services and composite readings. The euro has remained within a narrow ranged centred on 1.3655-60 with markets now look to the June ECB announcement and the U.S. Read more
AUD weakness on RBA-speak was the main theme in an otherwise quite session in pre-Europe Asia trade, with today's slate of risk events serving to quell market activity, which include the June ECB meeting, June Eurozone services and composite PMI figures, and the U.S. Read more
Tomorrow we'll have the latest in our monthly installment of, "let's get realy excited about an economic statistic that will go through so many revisions as to make the initial release more or less meaningless." That being said, lt's take a look at the current US employment situation by looking at various statistical points. Let's start by looking at the U3 unemployment rate, which is the measure most people think of when they think about unemployment, and U6, which includes those who are maginally attached to the labor force and those who are working part-time for economic reasons. Read more
The dollar recovered some of the recently lost ground against the euro and sterling on back of the June U.S. ADP jobs report, which surged 281k in May, much better than expected. Subsequently released soft factories data left the greenback largely uninfluenced, aside from a modest dip, and the major currency pairings settled ahead of tomorrow's slate of risk events, which include the June ECB meeting, the June Eurozone services and composite PMI figures, and the U.S. Read more
The dollar traded mixed, gaining against a generally soft euro, which was aided by fresh widening in Treasury versus Bund yield differentials, and rising versus the Aussie, which fell after an ugly Australian trade report, but losing ground to the yen and sterling, the latter rallying on a stellar construction PMI outcome. Read more
The AUD lost some of its shine on ugly trade data out of Australia, which saw AUD-USD tip over 40 pips lower to the 0.9450-60 region. Australia's trade deficit widened to A$1.9 bln in May, a larger shortfall than anticipated after the sharply revised A$780 mln deficit in April (was -A$122 mln). Read more
With half of 2014 behind us, we not only have a better idea of how the economy is likely to perform in the second half of this year, but we can also begin to look ahead to the first half of 2015. That's because the long leading indicators usually turn at least 12 months before the economy as a whole does. At the end of last year, I forecast 2014 to be a year of deceleration, starting stronger and finishing weaker. Read more
The dollar was mostly net lower Tuesday, though U.S. data didn't prompt a big reaction ahead of key data later in the week, culminating in the June payrolls report. The greenback dipped but subsequently recovered on the release, where the headline misses expectations but the breakdown showed strong new orders. Read more
