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The biggest news this week was the ECB’s interest rate decision, where the central bank voted to keep rates at .15% without engaging in any other action. This despite an economy clearly teetering on the brink. Retail sales printed conflicting numbers: retail sales increased 2.4% Y/Y, but the EU retail index printed at 47.6, indicating the sector is in a technical recession. Read more
Geopolitics led the markets in N.Y. on Friday, as the U.S. authorized targeted airstrikes in Iraq, the cease-fire in Israel/Gaza ended, and as Russia apparently has begun to de-escalated the Ukraine situation. Slightly better U.S. productivity data was put on the back-burner, as reports of airstrikes on ISIS artillery dented the dollar, equities, and yields early, before things switched direction on news from Russia's Interfax that "Aircraft taking part in exercises have been redeployed from temporary (drills near Ukraine's border) to their permanent air bases." This appeared to substantiate earlier reports of de-escalation in the region as reported by the RIA, though no one is signaling the all-clear just yet. Read more
Australia’s economy is in a very interesting place. Thanks to China’s rapid growth – which has provided a vast and growing market for Australia’s natural resources – the Aussies have experienced a very long period of solid economic growth. Read more
Yen and Swiss franc are the main beneficiaries of the fresh bout of risk aversion that has hit markets after U.S. President Obama authorized targeted air strikes in Iraq, the tensions with Russia turn into a trade war and Israel resumed targeted bombings in Gaza. Read more
The ECB's cautious tone on the EU outlook, along with uncertainty over the impact Russian sanctions will have on the economy took EUR-USD lower in N.Y. trade on Thursday. In addition, a better U.S. jobless claims outcome helped USD tone early in the session. Read more
One of the points I've been making in the last few months about the housing market is that there has been no growth whatsoever in the construction of new single family homes for a year. Growth in new construction has come entirely from the construction of multi-unit dwellings, such as condos and apartments. Read more
EUR-USD ebbed back to the 1.3370-80 area after edging out a two-day peak in Asia at 1.3391. Big focus on the ECB and Draghi's press conference later as recent data misses are likely to force a renewed push of dovish-speak. We have a trendline target marked at 1.3310, with resistance coming in at 1.3391-3400 and 1.3433 (Monday's high). Read more
USD-JPY recovered from yesterday's mini-crash that was seen after the London close and saw the pair hit a low of 101.78 following a 50 pip crash. The talk was of a carry trade unwind in a risk-off day, reportedly run through a large sell trade in yen futures. Read more
Dear Mario: You don’t know me from Adam. And that’s OK. You are the “big kahuna” of the ECB, and, well, I’m not. However, I want to take this time to point the following out to you, especially as you'll make an announcement tomorrow about EU interest rates. The EU is in REALLY bad shape. The recession ended in 2009 (at least the US one). Read more
The dollar posted gains against most currencies, including new trend highs versus the euro and Canadian dollar, though posted losses against a generally bid yen today, which followed its usual inverse correlation with risk appetite as global stocks dove. Read more
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