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The dollar stabilized for the most part on Monday in N.Y. dealings, after the rout it suffered late last week, though risk taking levels remained weak in light of EM concerns, and the upcoming FOMC meeting, where another leg of taper is in the cards. EUR-USD gave back the 1.37 handle in London, and the pairing steadied above 1.3650 through the session. Read more
Starting at the end of last week, we’ve seen a large sell-off in emerging markets. It started with Argentina devaluing their currency last Tuesday. The South African rand has also sold off, as has the Turkish Lira – whose sell-off has been so sharp the Turkish central bank is calling an emergency meeting. Read more
No big movements among the main currencies, though emerging nation currencies and stock markets in Europe and Asia remained under pressure. The dollar was net modestly firmer versus the yen, and near net unchanged versus the euro. USD-JPY recovered to the 102.50-70 area in Europe after diving to a new cycle low of 101.76 in thin, pre-Tokyo trade in Asia. Read more
The stock market rout continued in Asia but the main currencies were not far from net unchanged levels in pre-European trade. There was some chop early in the session, ahead of the Tokyo open, which saw USD-JPY dive to a new cycle low of 101.76. The pair subsequently settled around 102.50, near the closing level seen in London on Friday. Read more
Last week, the biggest news was the rising fear of a slowing Chinese economy. Earlier in the week, Chinese year over year GDP came in at 7.7% -- a figure any country would love to print. But in China’s case, it signals the increasing possibility the economy is slowing from its rapid pace of expansion over the past 15+ years, Adding to the concern was the below 50 reading of the HSBC manufacturing index, indicated the domestic economy may be cooling further. Read more
In monthly news for December, existing home sales rose slightly over a revised lower November number, but are down YoY for the second month in a row. Leading indicators rose slightly, and November's were revised slightly higher, indicating continued economic growth into summer. The purpose of my weekly reports on the high frequency weekly indicators is to provide an up-to-this-week snapshot of the economy, a way to "mark to market" my own opinions and a vehicle for you to do so with yours as well. Last week I highlighted several coincident indicators that had suddenly gone cold. Read more
There was no U.S. data on Friday, and the FX market generally relied on equity and Treasury market moves for direction. The steep Wall Street sell-off, combined with lower yields resulted in a mostly mixed dollar. USD-JPY stayed down near 102.20, though while EUR-USD was kept under London highs, it remained supported over 1.3660. Read more
The risk-off theme heated up, which in the forex market was reflected by continued broad USD losses along with fresh lows in the risk barometer crosses of AUD-CHF and AUD-JPY, the former of which made the lowest level since August 2012 and the latter making a new low in the period since last September. Read more
Risk has remain off during the Asia session so far. The AUD dove to a fresh three-and-a-half year low of 0.8689 following RBA-speak from member Ridout, who said that a AUD-USD exchange rate of "around 0.80" would be a "fair deal," along with news that China may issue alert on credit risks in its coal industry. Read more
The dollar was sharply lower on Thursday, though weakness set in during the Asian session overnight, where a soft China PMI print hit the market. Later in Europe, stronger EU PMI's rallied the euro. In the U.S., the combination of China data and earnings misses weighed heavily on risk taking levels. Read more
