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Above is a chart of the USD/JPY pair for the last six months. Notice three clear technical events. 1.) The pair rallied from ~97.25 to 105.25 from late October to the end of December. 2.) Traders took profits, sending the pair down to the ~101 level by the end of January. 3.) The pair has been trading in a consolidating triangle pattern since the beginning of February. Read more
Another low in the CNY was the main development as the main currencies traded in narrow ranges. EUR-USD mostly flat-lined at familiar levels in the mid-1.37s, having quickly unwound a pop high to 1.3757, and USD-JPY was steady in the mid-to-low 102s. Cable retuned to near net-unchanged levels on the day after dipping in the initial wake of the second-estimate U.K. Read more
Another low in the CNY was the main development as the main currencies traded in narrow ranges during the Asian session ahead of the European open. EUR-USD flat-lined at familiar levels in the mid-1.37s, USD-JPY was steady in the mid-to-low 102s, and Cable made time in the upper 1.66s, all remaining comfortably within the previous days ranges. Read more
The dollar was choppy through the session, though ended not very far from where it started. The major European currencies were extremely whippy at mid-morning, as the dollar rallied, then fell back fairly sharply versus the euro, pound and CHF. EUR-USD ran into sellers over 1.3760, and fell back t0 1.3715, as U.S. Read more
Real retail sales have declined by nearly 1% in the last two months. How concerned should we be? Let's leave aside for purposes of this post speculating on how much of the decline might be due to unusually poor winter weather in most of the US. How serious have similar declines been shown to be in the past? Real retail sales themselves (divided by 2 YoY) are a fairly good harbinger of employment, as shown in this graph of the last 20 years: Thus in the next few months we might expect particularly poor (for this cycle) nonfarm payrolls. Beyond that, real retail sales per capita (i.e., how much are individuals spending vs. Read more
The USD remained soft, with Cable probing 1.6700 after BoE's McCafferty said that market expectations for a repo rate hike in Q2 2015 were not unreasonable, USD-JPY dipping to the low 102s as European stocks headed south (though the Nikkei managed a 1.4% closing gain), and EUR-USD lifting to the mid-1.37s. Read more
Very little direction has been seen among the main currencies during the Asia session so far. EUR-USD flat-lined within around 1.3729-45, USD-JPY did likewise around 102.50, and AUD-USD saw nothing more than a moderate oscillation around 0.9030. Stock markets in Asia rose following a positive close on Wall Street. Read more
The above chart is from the latest inflation report issued by Eurostat, where they reported the following: Euro area1 annual inflation was 0.8% in January 20142, stable compared to December 2013. A year earlier the rate was 2.0%. Monthly inflation was -1.1% in January 2014. European Union3 annual inflation was 0.9% in January 2014, down from 1.0% in December 2013. Read more
The dollar posted modest gains overall through the morning, though faded back into the London close. Aside from the Chicago and Dallas Fed indices (which were both weaker than expectations), there was nothing on the U.S. calendar. Equities however, posted big gains, taking the major indices to trend and record highs. Read more
EUR-USD unwound early-session gains to 1.3772, which came following an unexpected rise in the German Ifo February business sentiment survey, receding to the 1.3740 area. Final January Eurozone HICP inflation, which was released subsequent to the Ifo report, was unexpectedly revised to +0.8% y/y from 0.7%, but the market for euros was in no mood to test the post-Ifo high and EUR-USD deflated. Read more
 The pair rallied from ~97.25 to 105.25 from late October to the end of December.
2.) Traders took profits, sending the pair down to the ~101 level by the end of January.
3.) The pair has been trading in a consolidating triangle pattern since the beginning of February.&p[images][0]=http://xecommunityassets.s3.amazonaws.com/untitled_1.png){kind=link}
 are a fairly good harbinger of employment, as shown in this graph of the last 20 years:
Thus in the next few months we might expect particularly poor (for this cycle) nonfarm payrolls.
Beyond that, real retail sales per capita (i.e., how much are individuals spending vs.&p[images][0]=/system/files/styles/large/s3/image_48.jpg?itok=V34bSyRP){kind=link}
