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US news was a bit disappointing, largely because of weak housing numbers. New home sales decreased 8.1%. While it should be noted the previous month saw an increase of 8.3% (meaning the latest number could be seen simply as a “cooling off” from a strong month), a drop this large is concerning. Read more
The dollar rallied modestly, but broadly in N.Y. on Friday, as weak German Ifo data combined with EU threats of further Russian sanctions, and apparent Russian movement of materiel into Ukraine, to push EUR-USD to new trend lows. The euro's decline set the market up for further dollar buying, which resulted in USD-JPY rallying to nearly three-week highs just under 101.95, and cable moving back toward 1.6770. Read more
EUR-USD came under some pressure into the end of the week, after the softer than expected German Ifo reading, which showed geo-political tensions weighing on business confidence. Expectations for an improvement in U.S. durable goods orders this morning has added some pressure a well. Read more
The dollar was broadly firmer in N.Y. trade on Thursday, with mixed data and marginally improved risk levels supporting. Jobless claims were the lowest since 1006, while Markit PMI miss forecasts somewhat. New home sales were soft, but overall, better China and EU data helped sentiment. Read more
Initial jobless claims reported at 284,000 this morning were only 2000 above the best number in the last 14 years, set for one week in 2006. Before that, the last time initial claims were below 284,000 was back in early 2000, as shown in the graph below: The four week average of jobless claims is also at an 8 year low. Read more
In its latest monetary policy report, the central bank of Canada notes that inflation has increased over the last few months. Total CPI inflation has moved up to around the 2 per cent target in recent months. Core inflation has also increased, but remains below 2 per cent Although the Bank had anticipated in the April Report that higher consumer energy prices and exchange rate pass-through would exert temporary upward pressure on inflation, the increase occurred sooner and has been larger than anticipated. Read more
The euro was up and the pound down in London trade, with EURUSD supported by much stronger than expected PMI readings, which unexpectedly showed an acceleration in economic activity. Cable meanwhile, dipped after weaker than expected retail sales numbers. Read more
The dollar perked up some in quiet N.Y. trade, though as is becoming commonplace in the FX market, ranges were narrow. EUR-USD tested London's trend low of 1.3455, though failed to make further downside progress. Sellers in place from 1.3475 capped the euro off. Read more
The dollar perked up some in quiet N.Y. trade, though as is becoming commonplace in the FX market, ranges were narrow. EUR-USD tested London's trend low of 1.3455, though failed to make further downside progress. Sellers in place from 1.3475 capped the euro off. Read more
Yesterday's report of existing home sales is in line with what I've laid out as the sequence in which the housing market turns: Read more
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