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The USD is little changed, with EUR-USD trading around 1.3660, after rising to 1.3685 earlier. Yen and Swiss franc meanwhile erased declines as the impact of the Turkish rate hike fades. It seemed the Turkish move revived confidence in emerging markets and reduced safe haven demand, but this was only short lived with the focus turning to the FOMC announcement today. Read more
All eyes will be on the Fed after the European close, though ahead of the announcement, we expect FX trade will be limited to position adjustments, though Turkey's rate hike may keep the greenback supported into the announcement. The FOMC began its policy meeting, the last one under Chairman Bernanke, on Tuesday. Read more
The dollar slipped back following a very weak durables report, though managed to recover in the aftermath of a better than expected consumer confidence print. EUR-USD made its way to 1.3685 highs before easing back under 1.3660, while USD-JPY dipped under 102.65, and later recovered to hit the 103.00 mark. Read more
The USD pushed higher as stocks recover in Europe, with the move partly fuelled by stop orders and partly as the market is being mindful of the FOMC announcement tomorrow that is widely expected to announce a further tapering. The Fed tapering view is strengthened by the backdrop of calmer markets today, reflected by the health 0.8% rebound in the STOXX 600 index and a 0.5% gain in S&P 500 futures. Read more
The dollar stabilized for the most part on Monday in N.Y. dealings, after the rout it suffered late last week, though risk taking levels remained weak in light of EM concerns, and the upcoming FOMC meeting, where another leg of taper is in the cards. EUR-USD gave back the 1.37 handle in London, and the pairing steadied above 1.3650 through the session. Read more
Starting at the end of last week, we’ve seen a large sell-off in emerging markets. It started with Argentina devaluing their currency last Tuesday. The South African rand has also sold off, as has the Turkish Lira – whose sell-off has been so sharp the Turkish central bank is calling an emergency meeting. Read more
No big movements among the main currencies, though emerging nation currencies and stock markets in Europe and Asia remained under pressure. The dollar was net modestly firmer versus the yen, and near net unchanged versus the euro. USD-JPY recovered to the 102.50-70 area in Europe after diving to a new cycle low of 101.76 in thin, pre-Tokyo trade in Asia. Read more
The stock market rout continued in Asia but the main currencies were not far from net unchanged levels in pre-European trade. There was some chop early in the session, ahead of the Tokyo open, which saw USD-JPY dive to a new cycle low of 101.76. The pair subsequently settled around 102.50, near the closing level seen in London on Friday. Read more
Last week, the biggest news was the rising fear of a slowing Chinese economy. Earlier in the week, Chinese year over year GDP came in at 7.7% -- a figure any country would love to print. But in China’s case, it signals the increasing possibility the economy is slowing from its rapid pace of expansion over the past 15+ years, Adding to the concern was the below 50 reading of the HSBC manufacturing index, indicated the domestic economy may be cooling further. Read more
In monthly news for December, existing home sales rose slightly over a revised lower November number, but are down YoY for the second month in a row. Leading indicators rose slightly, and November's were revised slightly higher, indicating continued economic growth into summer. The purpose of my weekly reports on the high frequency weekly indicators is to provide an up-to-this-week snapshot of the economy, a way to "mark to market" my own opinions and a vehicle for you to do so with yours as well. Last week I highlighted several coincident indicators that had suddenly gone cold. Read more
