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We’ve gotten the latest round of AIG industry PMIs for Australia’s construction, manufacturing and service sectors. All three are expanding. Although the manufacturing index dropped 1.2 points, tt has been above a 50 reading for 17 months, indicating continued growth. Read more
WE have a new Fed Chairman: Jerome Powell. We also have a new Fed, in the sense that the FOMC Committee released their revised economic projections at their latest meeting: The median GDP increased .2% for 2018 and .3% for 2019. Read more
February data included a decline in consumer confidence from both sources, and a decline in the Chicago PMI, which was nevertheless still positive. Nominal personal income and spending increased, but in real terms income was flat. House prices continued to increase strongly YoY. My usual note: I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good Now-cast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. Read more
OVERVIEW US consumer spending rises modestly while inflation picks up. UK 2017 GDP growth revised up, current account deficit revised down. Canadian GDP unexpectedly declined in January. HIGHLIGHT Unemployment in Germany fell to a record low in March, reflecting the strength of a labor market that has become the cornerstone of a consumer-led upswing. Read more
The DXY moved to its best levels in nearly a week, topping at 89.86 after opening near 89.44. Upgraded Q4 U.S. Upwardly revised Q4 GDP helped dollar sentiment, as did the partial unsinding of trade war fears. EUR-USD fell to 1.2335 lows from 1.2410 at the open, as USD-JPY ran up to 106.48 highs. Read more
In this relatively slow news week, let me update a couple of subjects on which I've recently posted here. A few days ago Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI revealed a change in their longer term forecast: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4159375-ecris-lakshman-achuthan-long-leading-index-turned "The growth rates of our long leading indicators have turned down," he said. Read more
The dollar traded firmer, especially against the yen and Swiss franc. USD-JPY logged a one-week high at 105.95 after more than reversing intraday losses. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also picked up from intraday declines, but remained off recent highs. Read more
The yen was moderately bid amid a rekindling in risk aversion in global asset markets, led by a sharp tech-sector rout on Wall Street yesterday, which left the Nasdaq nursing a hefty 2.9% loss at the close of the regular session. USD-JPY drifted to a 105.32 low, subsequently picking itself up back above 105.50 into the London interbank open but so far remaining off yesterday's high at 105.90. Read more
The dollar index rallied some early in the session, topping at 89.63, before heading back to 89.30 lows. Wall Street started higher, with the Dow supported by big GE gains, though losses ensued, especially in the NASDAQ, where Tesla and Facebook were hit, and NVIDIA pulled the plug on autonomous car testing. Read more
The dollar has posted a decent rebound after posting fresh lows versus the euro and other currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is showing a gain of 0.3% presently, at 89.29, retracing about two thirds of the decline seen over the last day, which earlier left a six-week low at 88.94. Read more
