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International Economic Week in Review: Growth Looks to Be Picking Up a Bit

By: HaleStewart

The OECD issued its semi-annual growth projection this week, which was essentially unchanged from its analysis 6 months ago. While they argued that increased confidence should spur growth, increasing interest rates and higher energy prices would slow growth by a similar amount. Read more

US Bond Market Week in Review: The Yield Curve Says a Recession is a Long Way Off

By: HaleStewart

The above chart shows several pieces of important data. The top panel shows the spread between the10-yearr treasury and the federal funds rate. The scale is on the left. The lower panel shows the actual federal funds and 10 year treasury rate; the scale is on the right. In all 6 of the preceding expansions, the spread between the 10 year and federal funds rate turned negative before the next recession, making an inverted yield curve a perfect predictor of recessions. Read more

US Equity and Economic Review: Everything Continues to Look Bullish

By: HaleStewart

With the exception of Friday’s employment report, this week’s economic news was light – there were only 4 releases – and secondary in nature – the subject matter was more interesting to economists than individual investors. Productivity growth continued to be weak, which means overall GDP growth will have a difficult time advancing beyond its current weaker-than-desired pace. Read more

Weekly Indicators: long term rates turn negative again edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

February data was highlighted by another good jobs report, including declines in both the unemployment and underemployment rates. Additionally, most of the internals were as good as the headline numbers. Wage growth for nonsupervisory workers continues to be weak, and in real terms is virtually unchanged YoY. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Mar 10, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar traded mixed-to-steady into the release of the U.S. February jobs report, logging fresh highs versus the yen, which continued to underperform, but posting a fresh low versus the euro before rebounding some. Against the Canadian dollar, sterling, and other currencies, the dollar remained within ranges seen yesterday.[EUR, USD]The euro has remained perky, with EUR-USD lifting to a four-session peak at 1.0618. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Mar 10, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The yen continued to slip, making new lows versus the dollar and euro, among other currencies, with yesterday's ECB shift to a more neutral footing having underlined the relatively dovish stance of the BoJ, which continues to pursue operations to cap the 10-year JGB yield at zero percent. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Mar 09, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The euro got an early boost in N.Y. trade, as EUR-USD rallied on the back of the Draghi press conference. He made a subtle attempt to move the Bank's outlook to a more neutral stance, which resulted in higher Bund yields and a firmer euro. EUR-USD rallied to 1.0615 from 1.0552 lows, before fading again. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Unchanged Interest Rates Strengthens Euro

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW U.S. President Trump plans to move quickly on the $1 trillion infrastructure plan. Euro stands strong as ECB leaves interest rates and the QE program unchanged. British Pound is lower as markets ignore budgets higher growth and lower public debt predictions. HIGHLIGHT The ECB was the highlight of the day, leaving interest rates and the QE program unchanged. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Mar 09, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar posted fresh highs versus the euro, yen, sterling, Canadian and Australian dollars, amongst other currencies, as yesterday's strong U.S. ADP private jobs report continued to resonate, with the data imparting added upside risk to tomorrow's release of the February payrolls report, in turn feeding market expectations for hawkish guidance from the Fed after it delivers a now fully-expected 25 bp rate hike next Wednesday.[EUR, USD]EUR-USD lifted above 1.0550 after logging a six-day low at 1.0525 during the early London AM session. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Mar 09, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar logged fresh highs versus some currencies, including the euro, and Australian and other dollar-bloc currencies, while consolidating versus the yen and sterling, amongst others. EUR-USD logged a six-day low at 1.0525 and USD-CAD made a fresh high for the year at 1.3505. Read more


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