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Forecasting the economy: housing permits vs. real fixed private residential investment

By: New_Deal_democrat

Bill McBride a/k/a the nicest blogger on the internet argues (http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/03/update-predicting-next-recession.html) that a recession is nowhere near, partly because real private residential investment will turn down in advance, and he expects it to pick up this year, because there haven't been any Fed policy errors, because fiscal drag especially from the states is ending, and because there haven't been any (well, sufficient) fiscal policy errors. Mind you, I don't see a recession this year either (the long leading indicators are still generally positive), and I have complete respect for Bill, but there are pretty good reasons to doubt each of those statements. In this post, let's take a look at real private fixed residential investment. Real fixed private residential investment, particularly as measured as a percent of real GDP, was identified in 2007 by UCLA Prof. Read more

UK Economy Is Hitting Its Stride

By: HaleStewart

Recent economic numbers from the UK indicate the economy is starting to hit its stride.  Let's start with today's GDP release: Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Mar 28, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

More of the same today, with the AUD leading fresh gains in the dollar bloc currencies and the euro sinking to fresh lows. EUR-USD dove to 1.3705, breaching the Mar-5 low on route and putting the euro at its lowest level since late February. An unexpected drop to a negative y/y reading Spanish inflation was the spark, followed by a deceleration in regional German inflation figures. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Mar 28, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The AUD, NZD and CAD saw fresh highs, while the USD majors saw mostly featureless trade in the period since the New York close yesterday. Japan's heavy data slate was largely upbeat, as CPI accelerated, unemployment fell and retail sales improved. This helped support Japanese and Asian equity markets, and indirectly the aforementioned dollar bloc currencies. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Mar 27, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar firmed up against the European majors, as it lost ground to the yen and dollar bloc. Upwardly revised Q4 GDP, and lower jobless claims gave the greenback a modest boost early in the session, though as Wall Street took another hit, USD-JPY eased into the 102 level again. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Mar 27, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The USD traded firmer against the EUR and JPY, but lower against GBP, which rallied across-the-board following a much stronger than anticipated retail sales report out of the U.K. The NZD also rallied against the greenback following hawkish RBNZ-speak. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Mar 27, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

USD-JPY was the main mover in an otherwise fairly featureless session in pre-London trade in Asia. The pair extended lower, triggering stops through 101.90-102.00 to log an eight-day low of 101.72 before rebounding to 102.20-plus levels. Market commentaries we have seen report that a rally in Japanese stocks inspired the yen's decline. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Mar 26, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was choppy in range bound action in N.Y. on Wednesday, though the greenback was mostly lower overall. EUR-USD traded sides of the 1.3800 mark through the day, managing a 1.3777 to 1.3809 trading band. USD-JPY was rock steady near 102.35 until early afternoon, when the combination of softening equities and lower Treasury yields in the aftermath of a solid five-year auction weighed. Read more

The Progress of Chinese Rebalancing in Perspective; A Work in Progress

By: HaleStewart

Over the last 12-18 months, it has become obvious that China is seeking to change the content of its economic growth, shifting from a model dependent on exports to one more focused on domestic demand. At the same time, the economy is also growing at a slower rate, largely because it has changed from a third world rapid growth model to a more fully developed economy. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Mar 26, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

Most of the main USD pairings remained well within their respective Tuesday ranges. The AUD and GBP were exceptions, with Cable managing to eke out a high for the week at 1.6557 following upbeat remarks from BoE MPC member Weale, while AUD-USD rallied quite strongly to a fresh four-month peak of 0.9235. Read more

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