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XE Market Analysis: North America - Nov 12, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has been mixed, gaining against an underperforming sterling after the BoE trimmed GDP and CPI projections, holding net steady in the mid-to-upper 1.24s versus the euro, and ebbing to the low 115s against the yen following a correction from Tuesday's six-year peak at 116.10. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Nov 12, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has traded steady-to-softer. EUR-USD lifted to a peak of 1.2493, though yesterday's high 1.2499 untroubled. USD-JPY dipped to a low of 115.09 before recouping to the mid-115s, consolidating after extending to a fresh 6-year peak of 116.10 yesterday. Read more

Global Recession Calls Are Not Far-Fetched

By: HaleStewart

From Bloomberg: The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, based in Mount Kisco, New York, and run by Jerome’s grandson David, is again more worried than its peers. Its half-dozen analysts attach a 65 percent probability of a worldwide recession forcing a contraction in the U.S. Read more

The case for a consumer slowdown

By: New_Deal_democrat

In 2007 on the eve of the Great Recession, UCLA Prof. Edward Leamer gave a speech at Jackson Hole entitled, Housing IS the Business Cycle. The thrust of the speech was that, in almost every case since the end of World War 2, housing was the first segment of the economy to turn down - on average about 5 quarters before the onset of a recession - and the first to turn up as well. Leamer also found that the second segment of the economy to turn down - about 6 months before a recession - was consumer purchases of durable goods - in short, cars. Since we got an updated report through October on motor vehicle sales last week, and the GDP report on private residential investment mirrored what housing permits have been telling us all year, I thought I would take a look at Leamer's leading metrics. Below is a graph showing that since 2009 that at least one of these two most important and long-lasting consumer purchases has not been improving briskly. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Nov 11, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar drifted lower in quiet trade, more than giving back gains seen during the Asia and European AM sessions. EUR-USD recovered to the mid-1.24s, leaving a two-day low at 1.2394. The euro was unperturbed was remarks from ECB's Mersch, who said the central bank will be ready to buy ABS next week. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Nov 11, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has traded firmer today. USD-JPY punched to a new trend high of 115.85 on triggering a round of buy stops through 115.55-65. U.S. Fed Fischer said that rates could rise in the U.S. before summer 2015, which is when markets are currently expecting, in an interview with the Handelsblatt newspaper today. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Nov 11, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

USD-JPY has punched to a new trend high of 115.85 so far. Buy stops were triggered around 115.55-65. The move comes after Japan's PM Abe said that the intended second sales tax hike will be delayed, according to government sources cited by Reuters. U.S. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Nov 10, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar traded broadly higher in N.Y. on Monday, with price action relatively slow and methodical through the session. After peaking at 1.2486 in early dealings, EUR-USD faded under 1.2425 by mid afternoon, while USD-JPY made its way to 114.80, after opening near 114.10. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Nov 10, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar gave back some of the post-U.S. jobs gain that was seen Friday. The move has been concomitant with a decline in the greenback's yield advantage, which at the 10-year bond maturity level has dipped to 148 bp against the euro, down from 150 bp-plus levels seen ahead of the payrolls release on Friday, and to 185 bp versus the yen, down from around 190 bp. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Nov 10, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar gave back some of the post-U.S. jobs gain that was seen Friday, which although disappointing at the headline level was solid overall thanks to back revisions and other details. The move has been concomitant with a decline in the greenback's yield advantage, which at the 10-year bond maturity level has dipped to 148 bp against the euro, down from 150 bp-plus levels seen ahead of the payrolls release on Friday, and to 185 bp versus the yen, down from around 190 bp. Read more

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