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International Economic Preview For the Week of January 19-23: Big Week For Central Banks, Edition

By: HaleStewart

     The following economic releases will have a disproportionate impact on the markets next week: Monday Read more

Weekly Indicators: big positive mortgage news, but negative consumer and tax withholding news edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

Monthly December reports reported in the last week were mixed. University of Michigan consumer sentiment rocketed to close to 40 year highs, ex- the late 90s tech boom. The JOLTS jobs report was positive. Both PPI and CPI declined, which I am scoring as a significant positive due to the big decline in gas prices. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jan 16, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar made gains through the N.Y. morning session on Friday, heading to 11-year lows of 1.1460 versus the euro, and climbing over 117.75 against the yen. Cable headed briefly under 1.5100, as USD-CHF charged up to near 0.8640 from lows of 0.8450. Read more

A perfect yield curve recession indicator - except for the most important times

By: New_Deal_democrat

Sometimes I feel like the Sisyphus of economic analysis.  There is so much bad information out there, even from well-known and widely-followed sources that it is a nearly fruitless task to call it out. Read more

International Economic Week in Review: Commodity Sell-Off Is A Supply And Demand Problem

By: HaleStewart

While oil’s precipitous price drop has garnered most of the headlines, the rest of the commodities complex has also been under selling pressure. The DBAs – the US traded ETF that tracks agricultural commodities – are nearing the 0% gain level for the last year. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jan 16, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar remained generally supported. EUR-USD drifted back under 1.1600 after a rebound stalled just shy of 1.1650, and we expect the pair will remain biased lower now that the SNB's EUR-CHF prop has been removed, and with markets expecting an QE announcement ECB on Jan-22. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jan 16, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has been steady-to-softer during pre-European trade in Asia. USD-JPY has been an exception as it is moderately net firmer after rebounding from a fresh one-month low at 115.84 to a peak of 116.83, subsequently settling around the 116.50-60 area. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jan 15, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The shock from the SNB's decision to abandon its EUR-CHF floor had repercussions in N.Y. on Thursday, leading to widespread volatility across all markets. U.S. equities swung between positive and negative territory ahead of the open, rallies in early trade, then slumped once again. Read more

Corporate profits as a leading indicator for stocks: January 2015 update

By: New_Deal_democrat

This is an update as to a relationship I have written about several times in the past year. The relationship is straightforward: if corporate profits (deflated by unit labor costs) are a long leading indicator for the economy, and stock prices are a short leading indicator, then logically corporate profits should lead stock prices at least in terms of direction, if not necessarily in terms of volatility. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jan 15, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-CHF collapsed after SNB gave up the 1.2000 franc cap. This sent the cross to a 1.0236, which is a massive price action. With the ECB set to pursue QE, it was always going to be a tall order for the SNB to defend 1.2000, while the central bank stated that "while the Swiss franc is still high, the overvaluation has decreased as a whole since the introduction of the minimum exchange rate," and that "the economy was able to take advantage of this phase to adjust to the new situation." The EUR-CHF nosedive caused chaos in forex markets. Read more


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