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Weekly Indicators: fully positive now, but interest rates a growning concern for late 2014 edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

In the rear view mirror, 3rd quarter median employment costs rose, and indicated that real median wages have grown about half a percent YoY. Monthly reports in the last week for October were showed outright deflation in both consumer and producer prices, strong retail sales, a decelerating but positive Philadelphia Fed, and a 4 month low in existing home sales. The high frequency weekly indicators are an almost simultaneous "nowcast" of the economy, and although they can be noisy, taken together they will show a continuation or turning of a trend before it shows up in the monthly data. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Nov 22, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar stayed lower versus European majors, and maintained a positive bias versus the yen in relatively light pre-weekend trade, with nothing on the U.S. data front to drive prices. Equities and Treasuries stayed fairly steady, and didn't give much impetus to dollar direction. Read more

"Abenomics" Is Working So Far

By: HaleStewart

Japan has been in a deflationary rut for the last 15-20 years. This presents an incredibly difficult policy dilemma for the central bank and other economic policy makers as deflationary expectations (the belief that prices will be lower tomorrow) are now firmly ingrained in the Japanese economic psyche. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Nov 22, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar remained soft against EUR and GBP, but was supported against JPY and the commodity bloc. EUR benefited on more short covering and broke back above 1.3500 amid strong German Ifo data and German Q3 GDP was confirmed at 0.3% q/q. Cable held on to levels around 1.6200, though profit taking by longs capped gains. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Nov 22, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was mixed in Asia. It maintained softer levels against EUR and GBP, but was supported against JPY, AUD and NZD. EUR benefited on short covering Wednesday as ECB's Draghi offered no new insight into negative deposit rates, while fund names piled into GBP on more U.K. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Nov 21, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar traded in a mixed fashion in N.Y. on Thursday, moving lower versus the European major currencies, while firming against the yen and dollar bloc. EUR-USD found a footing on talk from ECB Draghi, who downplayed a negative deposit rate, the news which had weighed the euro down on Wednesday. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Nov 21, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

The USD held on to firmer levels and EUR remained heavy following yesterday's contrasting central bank policy news. News that ECB is considering a -0.1% deposit rate if more easing is needed caught the market long of EUR near 1.3550 and the sell off was reinforced after the FOMC minutes revealed discussions about policy tapering. Read more

YoY reported corporate profits as a leading indicator for stock prices

By: New_Deal_democrat

I rarely comment on the stock market per se. When I do, it is usually because sentiment is at an extreme, and under those circumstances, although every fiber in your body will be telling you that the crowd is right, you are almost infallibly better off betting the other way. That's because, when everybody is bullish/bearish, almost all of the available money has been put into/taken out of the market. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Nov 21, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

The USD held on to firmer levels and EUR remained heavy following yesterday's contrasting central bank policy news.News that ECB is considering a -0.1% deposit rates if more easing is needed caught the market long of EUR near 1.3550 and the sell off was reinforced after the FOMC minutes revealed discussions about policy tapering. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Nov 20, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar got a boost from an ECB news report in N.Y. on Wednesday, taking EUR-USD from near 1.3550 to lows near 1.3435. Intra-day accounts got caught long of EUR-USD after ECB is said to weigh a -0.1% deposit rate if more easing is needed. Elsewhere, the greenback was dragged higher versus the pound, yen and Swiss franc as well. Read more

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