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The AUD came under pressure as the RBA minutes to the Sep-1 meeting took stock of "below average" economic growth while highlighting increased downward risks to the outlook from overseas developments. AUD-USD, which had extended its recent rebound to a new two-week high of 0.7166 ahead of the minutes, tumbled to the low 0.71s. Read more
The dollar was mostly lower in what was a relatively quiet Monday session in N.Y.. Major dollar pairings were range bound overall, as a lack of data, and proximity to Thursday's FOMC announcement kept the market in check. Wall Street lost ground following a negative China performance overnight, though yields bounced from lows, despite stock market weakness, likely a function of the upcoming FOMC meeting. Read more
While we have a host of economic indicators telling us if a recession is near, is upon us, or has recently ended (i.e., leading, coincident, or lagging indicators), the fact is that expansions tend to be much longer than recessions. Thus I have tried to develop "mid-cycle indicators," which are data series that can help tell us if we are in the earlier or later part of an economic expansion. Read more
The dollar perked up in the late European morning after edging fresh lows against the euro and yen during the Asian session. Risk appetite flopped in Asia as Chinese stock markets led regional markets lower on a batch of mixed data out of Asia, but flipped higher during the European AM following above-forecast Eurozone industrial production, which helped fostered moderate gains in European stocks. Read more
The JPY traded firmer and the AUD was pressured as Chinese stocks gave up early gains and tumbled quite heavily into the red, leading Japan and other Asian markets lower. The Aussie, which is a good proxy of China sentiment, turned lower in sympathy with Chinese bourses. Read more
Hale Stewart is a former bond broker who has been writing about economics and financial markets since 2006 on the Bonddad Blog. He is also a tax attorney with a domestic and international practice while also forming and managing captive insurance companies for US companies. Read more
Monthly data for August included deflation in both import and export prices, a flat PPI, a flat inventory to sales ratio at elevated levels, and a decline in consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan. Most analysts called the JOLTS report strong, focusing on the continued surge in job openings. Read more
Hale Stewart is a former bond broker who has been writing about economics and financial markets since 2006 on the Bonddad Blog. He is also a tax attorney with a domestic and international practice while also forming and managing captive insurance companies for US companies. Read more
The dollar rallied marginally after a hotter August core PPI print, though largely turned south from there. A much weaker Michigan sentiment print (one year low) undermined sentiment to a degree, though with the FOMC meeting looming next week, and odds somewhat reduced for a Fed rat lift-off, it appeared general paring of long USD positions was the pre-weekend driver from there. Read more
There has been no clear direction in the main currencies so far today. The euro clawed out new highs against the dollar and yen, among other currencies, before retreating. EUR-CHF was on the move again, rising above 1.1000 for the first time since the SNB abandoned its limit on the franc in January. Read more
