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Weekly Indicators: production, rail transport, and spending still poor edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

Monthly reports for March started out with a poor jobs report, with almost all internals, and revisions, down. On the other hand, March auto sales were at near post-recession highs. ISM manufacturing was less positive than previously. February reports included personal income and spending, both up, but spending less than income, pending home sales up sharply, factory orders up, but with a big downward revision to January, and construction spending down slightly. My usual note: I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide an up-to-this-week snapshot of the economy. Read more

International Economic Week In Review; Looking At the Global Problem Spots, Edition

By: HaleStewart

Earlier this week, I placed the US economy on “yellow alert” status, meaning that a large enough number of economic indicators are flashing warning signs to warrant caution. The US, however, isn’t the only major country experiencing problems. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Apr 02, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was mostly lower in N.Y. trade on Thursday, despite better initial jobless claims, a much narrower trade deficit, and improved factory orders. Pre-Easter weekend book adjusting was ultimately the main driver, which resulted in European accounts being buyers of EUR-USD and cable. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Apr 02, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD has rallied above 1.0800 to a peak of 1.0844, pressing against Tuesday's high at 1.0845 before settling around 1.0825-30. Stops were a factor as the market positions for tomorrow's U.S. jobs report, especially with European markets being closed for the Good Friday holiday and with the speculative market running an extreme net short exposure to the euro. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Apr 02, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD held in the mid-to-upper 1.07s during pre-Europe trade in Asia. Intensifying Grexit concerns aside, which is a wildcard for the euro, we favour the upside over the nearer term as weaker than expected ISM, ADP, and construction data out of the U.S. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Apr 01, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar tilted lower in N.Y. on Wednesday, as data misses weighed on the dollar, yields, and Wall Street. The ADP employment survey was light of expectations, as was the March manufacturing ISM, and construction spending. EUR-USD opened near 1.0840, and made its way to session highs of 1.0795 into the London close. Read more

The long leading indicators: 1st quarter 2015 update

By: New_Deal_democrat

Back in January I forecast growth throughout 2015 subject to the caveat that I needed to see 4th Quarter GDP (for private residential spending and corporate profits) before extending that forecast definitively through the 4th quarter of this year. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Apr 01, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar popped higher before settling ahead of tomorrow's release of the March payrolls report. EUR-USD dove to 1.0718, just over 50 pips down on the intraday high before finding a toehold above yesterday's low at 1.0712. USD-JPY, meanwhile, steamed back above 120.00 after dipping to a low of 119.42 in Tokyo, and Cable fell to a 12-day low at 1.4739, despite above-forecast UK manufacturing PMI data. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Apr 01, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD lifted to the upper 1.07s in pre-European trade in Asia, despite Fed hawk Lacker saying that there is a strong case for June hike, although there is no pre-set timetable, and from Fed's George, also a hawk, who said that it's time for the Fed to talk about rates lift-off. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Mar 31, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was mixed overall in light FX trade in N.Y. on Tuesday. Month and quarter end positioning had largely run its course, leaving the market rather listless. EUR-USD peaked at 1.0776 before easing back under 1.0730, where it spend most of the session. Read more

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