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The dollar came under pressure against the euro, yen, sterling and other currencies. The main driver appeared to be EUR-JPY, which surged over 100 pips in reclaiming the 142.00 level for the first time in three weeks. EUR-USD spiked to the high 1.38s, breaching last week's highs on route and making a two-week peak of 1.3879, which is over 50 pips up on last week's closing levels. Read more
Not much movement today among the main currencies in pre-Europe trade in Asia. EUR-USD oscillated in the mid-to-low 1.38s and USD-JPY in the low 102s. Japan retail sales for March came in at +11.0% y/y, slightly above expectations as consumers front-loaded purchases ahead of the early April imposition of the three percentage point rise in sales tax. Read more
The current general economic consensus is the developed world will take the reins of growth and hopefully pull the developing world along for the ride. But while the US and Australia have been growing for the last few years, the EU is still trying to emerge from its malaise and Japan is still hoping the long-term benefits of Abenomics pays off. Read more
Monthly data for March reported in the last week included rising Leading Economic Indicators, confirming no recession for the next 6 months or so, and positive durable goods and consumer sentiment, although expectations have been going generally sideways, negative existing home sales, and not just poor, but downright ugly new home sales. My weekly report on the high frequency weekly indicators is meant to provide an up-to-this-week snapshot of the economy. Read more
FX trade was again lackluster on Friday, with little in the way of price action, and light volumes changing hands. EUR-USD idled inside a 1.3830-48 range, while USD-JPY moved briefly to 101.97, before recovering to 102.21. Some corporate earnings misses, along with geopolitical tensions in the Ukraine kept Wall Street well under water through the session, which also pushed Treasury yields lower. Read more
The UK started to print solid economic numbers in mid-2013. However, as this was a nascent recovery, caution was warranted. Now that we’ve had 6-9 months of solid numbers, it appears the UK is on its way to solid growth in the near future. Let's take a look at the numbers. The top chart shows the UK manufacturing PMI while the bottom chart shows the services PMI. Read more
The USD was softer in quiet, relatively low volume trade. News that S&P downgraded its rating of Russia and an Interfax report that Moscow is ready for "unbiased and constructive" talks with the U.S. didn't cast much impact in the main currencies. Read more
It has been a quiet session in pre-European Asian trade, partly due to Australian and New Zealand being closed for the ANZAC Day public holiday. USD-JPY continued to gently oscillate in the low-to-mid 102s, EUR-USD flat-lined around 1.3830-35, and AUD-USD edged modestly higher, to the 0.9275-80 area. Read more
The dollar reacted to rumors of an "emergency" press conference from Putin, taking the greenback higher versus the euro and lower against the yen. Yields dipped, and equities sold off as well, though after a denial of such a presser, markets reversed themselves to a degree. Read more
The euro rose on a strong German Ifo business sentiment reading only to be knocked lower by ECB Draghi's hammer, which took the form of a warning that a worsening inflation outlook would be a trigger for QE. EUR-USD dropped back to near net unchanged levels around 1.3820 after peaking at 1.3343 in the immediate wake of the Ifo release. Read more
