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XE Market Analysis: North America - Dec 15, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar recovered during the London AM after trading softer in in Asia. The yen saw some chop, initially declining in the early Tokyo session as the market reacted to PM Abe's landslide victory at the weekend's election, which gives a fresh mandate to yen-negative 'Abenomics' policies, before firming in a delayed 'on-the-fact' manner as the outcome had been widely anticipated. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Dec 15, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar traded softer in pre-European open trade in Asia, while the yen more than gave back early Tokyo losses and traded firmer in 'on-the-fact' manner following the as-expected landslide victory of PM Abe at the weekend's election in Japan. The election outcome gives a fresh mandate to yen-negative 'Abenomics' policies. Read more

Weekly Indicators: global weakness vs. US strength edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

Monthly November reports were few but strongly positive, including retail sales, consumer sentiment, and the JOLTS jobs report. PPI showed outright deflation. My usual reminder that the high frequency weekly indicators provide an up-to-this-week snapshot of the economy. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Dec 12, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar remained under pressure in N.Y. on Friday, as risk-off was again in vogue. Stocks tumbled again, as oil prices continued their unrelenting slide, trading under $57.50. The much better than expected December preliminary U. of Michigan sentiment report gave the greenback a brief respite, though dollar selling picked up again into the London close. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Dec 12, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

Relatively narrow ranges have prevailed among the main dollar pairings, which held comfortably within respective Thursday ranges. Liquidity was again reported to be on the low side due to the approach of year-end and ahead of the election in Japan at the weekend. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Dec 11, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was mostly higher in N.Y. trade on Thursday, helped by better retail sales and initial jobless claims data, which propped up yields, and saw Wall Street rally nicely. EUR-USD moved from 1.2440 to lows into 1.2370, as USD-JPY climbed back over 119.00, to peak at 119.55. Read more

International Economic Week in Review: The Oil Must Flow, Edition

By: HaleStewart

I'm traveling this weekend, so this review is a bit early. Over the last month, OPEC announced it would not lower its oil output. Analysts interpreted this decision as OPEC’s attempt to sink oil prices below levels at which fracking companies are profitable. Read more

A look at the short leading indicators

By: New_Deal_democrat

I frequently refer to the long leading indicators, i.e., those series which typically turn 12 or more months before the main economy does. In addition to those, however, the pioneering Prof. Geoffrey Moore also listed a series of 11 short leading indicators. Read more

Lower gas prices power US retail sales to new record

By: New_Deal_democrat

This morning we got the first good evidence that the big decline in gas prices is helping American consumers. Retail sales ex- gas increased +0.9%. Total retail sales increased +0.7%. October retail sales were also revised up +0.2% to +0.5%. Here's the graph of retail sales since January 2013: Since inflation was unchanged in October, that means real retail sales in October set a new high. Read more

Russian Situation Deteriorates Further

By: HaleStewart

The Russian economic situation continues to deteriorate. Overall GDP growth has been deteriorating for the last three years. Starting in 2013, the annual rate of growth slowed to between .7% and 2%. However, the 2% rate of growth is clearly the outlier, as rates below 1% are obviously more common. Because over 50% of Russia’s exports and fiscal revenue spending come from the oil market, oil’s price collapse is adding to the problems. Read more

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