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XE Market Analysis: Europe - Nov 14, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar posted gains across the board, led by USD-JPY and Cable, with the former punching out a fresh six-year peak of 116.29 and the latter trading below 1.5700 for the first time since September 2013. EUR-USD, meanwhile, drifted lower and posted an intraday low at 1.2426, still remaining within the rough 1.2400-1.2500 range that's persisted all week. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Nov 13, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was mostly higher in N.Y. trade on Thursday, though ranges were again relatively narrow. EUR-USD did manage to post modest gains however, trading up to the 1.2480 region, from opening levels near 1.2450. USD-JPY moved from 113.00 lows following the firmer jobless claims data, before heading over 115.80, where it ran into resistance. Read more

The Lackluster Condition of Australian Business

By: HaleStewart

Because of the depressed nature of the EU economy, the respective manufacturing and service surveys for the region receive a great deal of attention when they’re released. In contrast are the Australian numbers, which, because of the more solid position of the Australian economy, fly below the radar. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Nov 13, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar oscillated against the euro and yen, posted gains against the still-underperforming pound and lost ground to the Aussie dollar. AUD-USD rebounded quite strongly during the European AM session after taking a dive in Sydney hours after RBA assistant governor Kent said that the central bank "hasn't ruled out intervention." AUD-USD left low at 0.8672 before a stop-fuelled scramble propelled the pair to eight-day highs above 0.8760. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Nov 13, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The AUD took a dive on an RBA intervention threat from assistant governor Kent, who said that the central bank "hasn't ruled out intervention" while repeating the RBA's view that the currency remains fundamentally overvalued relative to falling resource prices. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Nov 12, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, lower versus the yen, and CAD, while posting modest gains against the euro and sterling. Aside from wholesale data, which was overlooked by the FX market, there was no data to drive prices. Equities started out poorly, though managed to recover some, which provided a modicum of support to the greenback. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Nov 12, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has been mixed, gaining against an underperforming sterling after the BoE trimmed GDP and CPI projections, holding net steady in the mid-to-upper 1.24s versus the euro, and ebbing to the low 115s against the yen following a correction from Tuesday's six-year peak at 116.10. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Nov 12, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has traded steady-to-softer. EUR-USD lifted to a peak of 1.2493, though yesterday's high 1.2499 untroubled. USD-JPY dipped to a low of 115.09 before recouping to the mid-115s, consolidating after extending to a fresh 6-year peak of 116.10 yesterday. Read more

Global Recession Calls Are Not Far-Fetched

By: HaleStewart

From Bloomberg: The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, based in Mount Kisco, New York, and run by Jerome’s grandson David, is again more worried than its peers. Its half-dozen analysts attach a 65 percent probability of a worldwide recession forcing a contraction in the U.S. Read more

The case for a consumer slowdown

By: New_Deal_democrat

In 2007 on the eve of the Great Recession, UCLA Prof. Edward Leamer gave a speech at Jackson Hole entitled, Housing IS the Business Cycle. The thrust of the speech was that, in almost every case since the end of World War 2, housing was the first segment of the economy to turn down - on average about 5 quarters before the onset of a recession - and the first to turn up as well. Leamer also found that the second segment of the economy to turn down - about 6 months before a recession - was consumer purchases of durable goods - in short, cars. Since we got an updated report through October on motor vehicle sales last week, and the GDP report on private residential investment mirrored what housing permits have been telling us all year, I thought I would take a look at Leamer's leading metrics. Below is a graph showing that since 2009 that at least one of these two most important and long-lasting consumer purchases has not been improving briskly. Read more

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