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The majors have been treading in narrow ranges with today's release of the September U.S. jobs report now looming large on investors' radar screens. USD-JPY has maintained its increasingly narrow orbit around 120.00, while EUR-USD has drifted modestly lower, to the 1.1170 area after failing to hold gains above 1.1200 on several attempts over the last day. Read more
The dollar was broadly lower in N.Y. trade on Thursday, with sentiment dented by a weaker than expected September manufacturing ISM outcome. Wall Street gave back opening gains and traded sharply lower through the morning, as yields faded, with the 10-year note dropping to within a hair of 2.00%. Read more
This happens to be a good time to restate the sequence in which housing data runs: 1st, interest rates turn 2nd, home sales turn 3rd, home prices turn 4th, inventory turns The reason this is a good time to examine the timing is because mortgage rates made a 50 year low in late 2012. Read more
On the weekly chart, oil prices are again consolidating around the ~43 price level -- an area they used for technical support earlier this year. This could the be the second dip of a larger double bottom pattern. If so, it will take awhile (at least another few months) to play out. Be cautious: the chart still contains very negative technical developments. Read more
The dollar and other G3 currencies continued to loose ground to the commodity currencies as stocks and most commodity prices rose for a second day. A flood of PMI and other survey data out of Asia and Europe had little impact, while expectations of fresh stimulus in Europe and elsewhere are underpinning stock markets. Read more
The dollar bloc currencies have outperformed on the back of a strong Wall Street close and follow-up gains in Asian stock markets. The dollar itself traded firmer against its G3 peers, with EUR-USD dipping to a one-week low of 1.1140, extending declines seen since yesterday's deflationary HICP data out of the Eurozone. Read more
The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, moving higher against the euro after negative EU headline inflation data, and easing back modestly versus the yen on quarter-end activity, and fading yields. EUR-USD opened near 1.1210, and made its way to 1.1158 lows into the London close. Read more
The above chart from the FRED system shows corporate spreads have widened. The Aaa (red line, left scale) rose from 1.6% to 1.9% since the first of the year while the Baa spread (blue line, right scare) increased from 2.2% to 3.2%, but over a longer time period (approximately mid-2014 to now). The CCC chart is more concerning: In March, the CCCs yielded ~10%; the number is currently just under 14%, an increase of a little under 300 basis points. Why is this happening? 1.) Some of the increase is due to the oil patch, as once high-flying companies are seeing their credit rating drop with oil prices. 2.) Some of this will be due to industrial companies selling large durable goods to the energy and materials sector. 3.) There is also concern about corporate credit generally, especially in an era of potential Fed hikes. Read more
The dollar has been mixed, lifting versus the yen and euro, but losing ground to a revived pound and ebbing against the dollar bloc currencies. Quarter-end activity has been at play. Equity pundits at the FT and Reuters reported that window-dressing has underpinned a rebound in Asian and European stock markets, a backdrop which has underpinned the likes of the Aussie while weighing on the yen. Read more
A disorderly quarter came, or is coming to, an orderly finale in most Asian markets today, a backdrop that inspired moderate gains in the Aussie dollar and Asian currencies, and moderate losses in the yen. Asian stocks rallied. The Nikkei 225 closed with the solid 2.7% gain and Australia's ASX 200 with an impressive 1.8% rise, while the Shanghai Composite was showing just over a 1% advance in late PM session. Read more
 to play out.
Be cautious: the chart still contains very negative technical developments.&p[images][0]=http://xecommunityassets.s3.amazonaws.com/OilW.png){kind=link}
 rose from 1.6% to 1.9% since the first of the year while the Baa spread (blue line, right scare) increased from 2.2% to 3.2%, but over a longer time period (approximately mid-2014 to now).
The CCC chart is more concerning:
In March, the CCCs yielded ~10%; the number is currently just under 14%, an increase of a little under 300 basis points.
Why is this happening?
1.) Some of the increase is due to the oil patch, as once high-flying companies are seeing their credit rating drop with oil prices.
2.) Some of this will be due to industrial companies selling large durable goods to the energy and materials sector.
3.) There is also concern about corporate credit generally, especially in an era of potential Fed hikes.
&p[images][0]=http://xecommunityassets.s3.amazonaws.com/Moodys%20To%20Treasury.jpg){kind=link}