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The dollar remained under pressure in N.Y. on Friday, as risk-off was again in vogue. Stocks tumbled again, as oil prices continued their unrelenting slide, trading under $57.50. The much better than expected December preliminary U. of Michigan sentiment report gave the greenback a brief respite, though dollar selling picked up again into the London close. Read more
Relatively narrow ranges have prevailed among the main dollar pairings, which held comfortably within respective Thursday ranges. Liquidity was again reported to be on the low side due to the approach of year-end and ahead of the election in Japan at the weekend. Read more
The dollar was mostly higher in N.Y. trade on Thursday, helped by better retail sales and initial jobless claims data, which propped up yields, and saw Wall Street rally nicely. EUR-USD moved from 1.2440 to lows into 1.2370, as USD-JPY climbed back over 119.00, to peak at 119.55. Read more
I'm traveling this weekend, so this review is a bit early. Over the last month, OPEC announced it would not lower its oil output. Analysts interpreted this decision as OPEC’s attempt to sink oil prices below levels at which fracking companies are profitable. Read more
I frequently refer to the long leading indicators, i.e., those series which typically turn 12 or more months before the main economy does. In addition to those, however, the pioneering Prof. Geoffrey Moore also listed a series of 11 short leading indicators. Read more
This morning we got the first good evidence that the big decline in gas prices is helping American consumers. Retail sales ex- gas increased +0.9%. Total retail sales increased +0.7%. October retail sales were also revised up +0.2% to +0.5%. Here's the graph of retail sales since January 2013: Since inflation was unchanged in October, that means real retail sales in October set a new high. Read more
The Russian economic situation continues to deteriorate. Overall GDP growth has been deteriorating for the last three years. Starting in 2013, the annual rate of growth slowed to between .7% and 2%. However, the 2% rate of growth is clearly the outlier, as rates below 1% are obviously more common. Because over 50% of Russia’s exports and fiscal revenue spending come from the oil market, oil’s price collapse is adding to the problems. Read more
The dollar rebounded after extending to fresh correction lows. Data misses in Japan and the U.K. helped support USD-JPY and weigh on GBP-USD. A plethora of central bank announcements brought mixed market responses. The NOK dove a 5-year low on an unexpected Norges Bank rate cut, while NZD-USD surged after the RBNZ lifted growth forecasts after leaving policy unchanged. Read more
The dollar posted fresh correction lows against most currencies, though subsequently recouped most of these losses. USD-JPY logged a two-week low at 117.43 before recovering the 118 handle. The rebound was aided by Japanese Oct machinery orders which dove 6.4% m/m, contrary to hopes for some modest improvement. Read more
The dollar was mostly lower in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, again moving over 1.24 versus the euro, though staying under Tuesday's peak of 1.2447. USD-JPY lost ground, though again, remained above the 117.97 base printed on Tuesday. Aside from weekly EIA petroleum inventory data, the U.S. Read more
