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The dollar remained under the cosh versus its G3 peers while gaining against the commodity currencies as the recent risk-on spell turned sour, with commodity prices and most stock markets in the EMEA and Asian regions turning south today. China trade data spoiled the risk-on party as it showed a sharp 17.7% y/y dive imports in September, accelerating from August's 14.3% y/y decline. Read more
Commodity currencies have come off the boil as a bigger-than-anticipated dive in China imports disquieted investors, resulting in lower stock markets across Asia, along with softer commodity prices. While September trade data out of China showed a record surplus in yuan terms, this was not the case in dollar terms, and the 17.7% y/y dive in imports commanded most attention as the data suggest that demand conditions in China are flagging. Read more
The dollar remained on a weak footing during quiet dealings on Monday, posting fresh trend losses against the euro, Aussie and Kiwi dollars, and drifting lower against the yen. The move was a carry-on of selling seen in the wake of last week's release of the FOMC minutes, which have seen the odds for a Fed rate lift-off by year-end lengthen. Read more
This is an update as to a relationship I have written about a number of times already. Read more
The dollar started the new week where it left of the last, with a weakening bias. EUR-USD edged out a new three-week high just shy of 1.1400, continuing the rally that began with the dovish-leaving FOMC minutes of last Thursday. The AUD and NZD, meanwhile, outperformed as Chinese stock markets rallied strongly after PBoC deputy governor Yi said from weekend IMF meetings that the stock correction is "almost over." USD-JPY remained mired in a narrow range in the low 120.00s, with remarks from BoJ's Kuroda casting little impact. Read more
Narrow ranges have prevailed in early-week trading, with volume and impetus flagging with Japan out today, and U.S. and Canada also due to be closed for public holidays. Despite this, risk-on remained the dominant theme, reflected by commodity prices gains (copper up over 0.5%, oil prices by around 1%) and mostly-higher stock markets in Asia, led by continued gains in China (Shanghai Composite was showing a 3.3% gain in late PM session). Read more
Hale Stewart is a former bond broker who has been writing about economics and financial markets since 2006 on the Bonddad Blog. He is also a tax attorney with a domestic and international practice while also forming and managing captive insurance companies for US companies. Read more
Hale Stewart is a former bond broker who has been writing about economics and financial markets since 2006 on the Bonddad Blog. He is also a tax attorney with a domestic and international practice while also forming and managing captive insurance companies for US companies. Read more
Hale Stewart is a former bond broker who has been writing about economics and financial markets since 2006 on the Bonddad Blog. He is also a tax attorney with a domestic and international practice while also forming and managing captive insurance companies for US companies. Read more
Monthly data for September this week, revealing deflation in both import and export prices. The ISM services index remained very positive. Wholesale sales fell slightly; inventory increased slightly. Thus the inventory to sales ratio rose slightly. My usual note: I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good Now-cast of the economy. Read more
