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FX trade was calm in N.Y. on Wednesday, when compared to Tuesday's hectic session. With perhaps USD-CAD as the exception, the dollar largely maintained narrow ranges throughout. EUR-USD stuck to about a 30 point range above 1.1400 through most of the day, as USD-JPY faded from 117.67 highs to lows of 117.35. Read more
The dollar continued its sell off in N.Y. on Tuesday, taking the USD index down over 1.0%, in a good old-fashioned squeeze. EUR-USD opened near 1.1390, and eventually made it to 1.1534 highs. USD-JPY held up better, rallying with higher equities and U.S. Read more
The Reserve Bank of Australia just lowered interest rates, offering the following justification: Read more
The AUD dove 2.5% following the largely unexpected RBA rate cut, which took Australian benchmark cash interest rate to a record low of 2.25%. AUD-USD dove to a low so far of 0.7635, breaching the July 2009 low at 0.7699 on route to make a fresh five-year-plus low. Read more
The AUD dove following the largely unexpected RBA rate cut, which took Australian benchmark cash interest rate to a record low of 2.25%. AUD-USD dove to a low so far of 0.7635, breaching the July 2009 low at 0.7699 on route to make a fresh five-year-plus low. Read more
On Sunday at 11AM CST, I'll be hosting a webinar that will focus on the week's economic events. I'll be focusing on international economic developments and some market action. Read more
FX trade was fairly quiet in N.Y. on Monday, though the dollar lost ground to most major currencies. Incoming data was soft overall, with income and consumption meeting low expectations, and ISM and construction spending both missing to the downside. EUR-USD found good support into 1.1300 early on, before rallying to highs over 1.1360. Read more
A little over three weeks ago I wrote that http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2015/01/the-bottom-in-gas-prices-is-close.html the bottom in gas prices was close. The primary reason was seasonality: as shown in the graph below in 8 of the last 10 years, gas prices have bottomed between mid November and early February: Since the actual dates aren't obvious in the above graph, here's the list: January 2005 December 2005 February 2007 December 2008 December 2011 December 2012 November 2013 Typically, by mid-February, refineries are changing over to their more expensive warm weather blend, and driving miles begins to increase. Read more
EUR-USD crept higher, reaching 1.1354 but remained she of Friday's peak at 1.1363. A well informed source cited by the Tages Anzeiger newspaper said the SNB has initiated a "soft floor" in EUR-CHF at 1.05-1.10, which helps explain the gains the cross has seen over the last several trading days and may help support EUR-USD, at lease for now. Read more
EUR-USD was trading a near net unchanged levels heading into the European open, sitting just above 1.1300 having left a range of 1.1278-1.1313 in the interim. USD-JPY recovered to the mid-to-upper 117s after a sharp drop in early New Zealand trade to a low of 116.64 (which apparently traded even though the low on our chart is only 116.94). Read more
 bottomed&p[url]=/blog/xe-market-analysis/us-gas-prices-have-probably-bottomed&p[summary]=A little over three weeks ago I wrote that
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2015/01/the-bottom-in-gas-prices-is-close.html
the bottom in gas prices was close. The primary reason was seasonality: as shown in the graph below in 8 of the last 10 years, gas prices have bottomed between mid November and early February:
Since the actual dates aren't obvious in the above graph, here's the list:
January 2005
December 2005
February 2007
December 2008
December 2011
December 2012
November 2013
Typically, by mid-February, refineries are changing over to their more expensive warm weather blend, and driving miles begins to increase.&p[images][0]=/system/files/styles/large/s3/image_281.jpg?itok=oy7o7G94){kind=link}