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The AUD and CAD moved in different directions, the former rising after the RBA minutes to the early October policy meeting revealed a more upbeat view than expected, and the latter declining on news of the Liberals election win in Canada. The G3 currencies, meanwhile have been steady, with EUR-USD consolidating recent losses in the low-to-mid-1.13s and USD-JPY making time in the mid-119s. Read more
The FX market was quiet in N.Y. trade on Monday, with narrow ranges in place for most major dollar pairings. This said, the greenback was mostly firmer. EUR-USD dipped under 1.1350 into the open, and remained under the level through the day, finding support into 1.1300. Read more
The euro came under pressure as focus squares on the ECB policy meeting this week, where Draghi is likely to keep the door open to an expansion in the QE program if needed further down the track. The latest Bloomberg survey showed 81% of respondents are expecting the ECB to expand its QE program in January. Read more
Above-forecast China GDP has only had a muted impact on currencies so far, as it has consequentially tempered expectations for large scale stimulus out of Beijing. This is perhaps a paradoxical reaction, reversing the equally paradoxical 'bad news is good news' theme that had been underpinning a risk-on sentiment in markets recently. Read more
Congress gave the Fed a dual mandate: maximum employment and price stability. Currently, there is a fair amount of uniformity among Fed governors regarding the former’s situation. While the unemployment rate is low, other measures of labor utilization show a higher than desired amount of slack. Read more
This week’s news was mixed. While the Fed’s Beige Book again noted the US economy’s moderate expansion, the monthly retail sales and industrial production numbers disappointed. However, Y/Y retail sales still show a consumer that is spending. Read more
The investment world changed their perception of the global economy over the last few months. Until mid-summer, the general conclusion was the global economy was grinding forward. Then came the China equity sell-off, and the near panic steps by the Chinese authorities to stop the bleeding. Read more
Monthly data for September this week included producer and consumer prices, both deflating, improving U. Michigan consumer sentiment, positive nominal and real retail sales, a slight decline in broad business sales with no inventory accumulation, and negative measures of industrial production, capacity utilization, and the NY and Philly manufacturing indexes. Read more
The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade on Friday, though overall, ranges were narrow ahead of the weekend, and a quite volatile week behind the markets. In-line U.S. industrial production and a better U. of Michigan sentiment outcome had little impact on the dollar, while yields remained range bound, and Wall Street meandered on either side of flat. Read more
The dollar retained the firmer tone it established yesterday. EUR-USD ebbed to a one-week low at 1.1334, and the also euro posted declines against the yen and sterling, though the magnitudes were modest. Final September Eurozone CPI was confirmed at -0.1% y/y , down from 0.2% in August, as expected. Read more
