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The ECB's Over-Reliance on Economic Projections At the Expense Of Current Data

By: HaleStewart

Despite a four year low in the rate of inflation and calls from others in the central banking community for the ECB to take extraordinary action, the European Central Bank has declined to do so. Underlying this lack of policy action is the question of, "why?" The answer lies in the ECBs reliance on economic projections at the expense of current economic numbers. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Apr 04, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD managed to edge out a new low of 1.3495, which is a pip shy of the Feb-28 low. Trading conditions were quiet ahead of the U.S. payrolls release, but the move nonetheless shows the bearish bias in the market following the ECB meeting yesterday. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Apr 04, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

Narrow ranges prevailed ahead of the U.S. jobs report and with the Asia session lacking data or fresh leads. The same story was also seen in asset markets, with equity markets, for instance, near flat amid low volumes. USD-JPY flat-lined around 103.85-90, below yesterday's 104.11 two-month peak, as the yen's recent bout of pronounced weakening came to pause. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Apr 03, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar firmed versus the European majors in N.Y. on Friday, with the ECB not making any moves, but leaving the door wide open to QE in the coming meetings. The governing council appears to be moving closer toward further easing, while the EUR is firmly in focus now, with Draghi stressing the importance of the currency for the inflation outlook. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Apr 03, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

A bout of data induced sterling weakness highlighted what was another fairly quite European AM session, while the yen steadied after making fresh lows in Tokyo. USD-JPY rose for a fourth consecutive day and breached above 104.00 for the first time since Jan-23 as the yen continued the softening trend that's been in place since the start of the new fiscal year in Japan. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Apr 03, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

USD-JPY rose for a four consecutive day and breached above 104.00 for the first time since Jan-23, as the yen continued the softening trend that's been in place since the start of the new fiscal year in Japan. Markets continue to anticipate a further BoJ easing to offset the sales tax hike that was implemented this week. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Apr 02, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar firmed up through the N.Y. session on Wednesday, as a solid March ADP employment survey, and stronger factory orders helped U.S. Treasury yields, and Wall Street higher. EUR-USD also suffered from pre-ECB position squaring, as Despite some downplaying of ECB QE action this week, it appeared some would rather be safe than sorry holding euros into the meeting. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Apr 02, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The JPY made fresh lows against the USD, EUR and other currencies, while news of a sizable earthquake in northern Chile had little market impact beyond a short-lived pop in copper prices (Chile is the world's biggest copper producer). Stock markets in Asia rallied, following the lead of Wall Street and Europe on Tuesday, where rallies were in part fuelled by report that at least some Russian troops had pulled back form the border with the Ukraine. Read more

Is It Time To Become Optimistic About the EU?

By: HaleStewart

The EU is an economic and investing conundrum right now. Unemployment is still very high; while it appears to be cresting, there is little indicating we're seeing a meaningful reduction in this key metric. Employment is still very weak and loan growth is still negative. Read more

Corporate profits as a leading indicator for stock prices an update

By: New_Deal_democrat

Last November I wrote [http://community.xe.com/forum/xe-market-analysis/yoy-reported-corporate-profits-leading-indicator-stock-prices] that, since corporate profits are a long leading indicator, and stock prices a shorter leading indicator, then contrary to received wisdom, reported corporate profits ought to bear some leading relationship to stock prices, and indeed they do: "[C]orporate profits tend to turn about 12 months before stock prices. Read more

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