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2015 forecast for the US economy: positive, but watch Washington and Oil

By: New_Deal_democrat

My method of forecasting is pretty simple. In fact, so simple, I call it the K.I.S.S. method. Even though the LEI is the statistic most denigrated by Wall Street forecasters, it has the inconvenient habit of being right more often than the highly-paid punditocracy, especially at turning points. Read more

International Economic Week in Review: New Year Not Starting Off Well, Edition

By: HaleStewart

Let’s start with the EU, where the two statistics most representative of the region’s problems were released: unemployment remained at 11.5% and inflation decreased .2% Y/Y, largely as a result of oils’ price drop. Both of these stats highlight just how deeply mired the region is in its economic malaise. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jan 09, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar corrected moderately during Asian trade. USD-JPY edged out a two-day low of 119.16, down 80 pips from the peak seen yesterday. EUR-USD recouped the 1.18 handle. AUD-USD lifted to a three-day peak of 0.8147 before steadying around 0.8120-30, knocked lower by a miss in Australian retail sales for November, which came in at +0.1% m/m. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jan 09, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar corrected moderately during Asian trade. USD-JPY edged out a two-day low of 119.16, down 80 pips from the peak seen yesterday. EUR-USD recouped the 1.18 handle, though subsequently settled back around 1.1790. AUD-USD lifted to a three-day peak of 0.8147 before steadying around 0.8120-30, knocked lower by a miss in Australian retail sales for November, which came in at +0.1% m/m. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jan 08, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar trended lower through the session in N.Y. on Thursday, despite relatively stable oil prices, slightly firmer Treasury yields, and another sharp Wall Street rally. EUR-USD touched trend lows of 1.1754 into the N.Y. open, though failed to make downside progress. Read more

Oil Price Drop Starting To Impact Canada

By: HaleStewart

Several economic statistics released over the last few days have indicated the energy slowdown is negatively impacting Canada. Let's start with exports, which decreased 3.5%. However, the real story was the drop in energy related goods: Exports of energy products fell 7.8% to $9.5 billion in November, the sixth consecutive monthly decrease. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jan 08, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar posted fresh trend highs against the euro and sterling, and a three-day peak versus the yen, though lost some ground to the Australian and Canadian dollars, which found reprieve amid firmer equity and commodity markets today. EUR-USD traded below 1.1800 for the first time since late 2005. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jan 08, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has remained bid with USD-JPY rising to a three-day peak of 119.95 and EUR-USD ebbing back toward yesterday's low at 1.1802. There wasn't any fresh leads; the move was a continuation of the broader trend. Firmer equity markets in Japan and elsewhere (aided by the FOMC minutes that showed that most members are willing to be "patient" with regard to a policy tightening) was, however, conducive for yen weakness, while a 2.4% m/m slump in German manufacturing orders should maintain the pressure on the euro. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jan 07, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was broadly higher through the N.Y. session on Wednesday, as risk appetite returned to a degree. Oil prices moved briefly over $49 from overnight lows under $47, which helped support equity markets. Decent ADP employment and trade data also helped sentiment, which allowed EUR-USD to trade to new trend lows just above 1.1800. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jan 07, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar traded posted new trend highs against the euro and other currencies. EUR-USD clocked near nine-year low of 1.1842 (EBS low) in early Asia-Pacific trade after taking out Monday's nadir at 1.1860. A subsequent bounce stalled shy of 1.1900, and the euro subsequently drifted lower. Read more

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