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XE Market Analysis: North America - Mar 09, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD was been knocked back below 1.09 after the rebound from Asia's 11-year-plus low of 1.0823 stalled at 1.0906. The euro should remain a sell-on-rallies with the Bundesbank confirming that the ECB commenced its QE program today, buying Bunds, while market attention is also directed to the Eurogroup meeting with the Greek bailout renegotiation issue remaining unresolved. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Mar 09, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD extended Friday's post-U.S. jobs report losses in Asia, logging a new 11-year-plus low of 1.0823. The stellar employment report has boosted the dollar's yield advantage, which has pushed out to new trend peaks near 185 bp at the 10-year T-note versus Bund benchmark maturity. Read more

US Equity Market Review For the Week of March 2-6; It's a Tough Slog Edition

By: HaleStewart

As I noted in my previous column, the market is now in a “tough slog” area. From a long-term perspective, the overall valuation level is expensive with even forward PEs printing at historically high levels. And, last week at least, the shorter-term analysis contributed to this conclusion with the percentage of stocks above their 50 day EMA on both the NASDAQ and NYSE at high levels. Read more

International Economic Week in Review: The US Continues To Lead, Edition

By: HaleStewart

This was quite the busy week in economic releases. Let’s start with the US, where the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book which contained the following overall assessment of the US economy: Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic activity continued to expand across most regions and sectors from early January through mid-February. Read more

Weekly Indicators: negativity spreads from coincident to short leading indicators edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

In the rear view mirror, Q4 unit labor costs increased, and productivity decreased, which I score as a positive. Monthly reports for February started with a very positive jobs and unemployment numbers, but flat or slightly increased nominal wages depending on how you measure, which I score as a negative. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Mar 06, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar surged higher in N.Y. trade on Friday, as the February U.S. employment report came in better than expected. EUR-USD dove to new 11-plus year lows of 1.0845, after posting a 1.0989 high ahead of the data. USD-JPY rallied to 2015 highs of 121.28, while cable slid under 1.51 from the first time since early February, basing at 1.5046. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Mar 06, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD dove further into 11-year-plus low territory, making a low-so-far of 1.0962 with the market deciding it didn't need to see the U.S. payrolls outcome to be euro bearish. The move reflected a broader drop in the European majors, with Cable also down quite sharply and USD-CHF flipping to new trend highs. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Mar 06, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD extended to a new 11-year-plus low at 1.0987 just after the London close on Thursday. The 1.10 handle was since recovered but rebounds have remained muted affairs. The dollar's yield advantage over the euro pushed to new cycle highs above 177 bp in the 10-year T-note over Bund differential. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Mar 05, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar firmed up again in N.Y. trade on Thursday, despite higher than expected jobless claims, soft factory orders, and downwardly revised productivity data. The ECB meeting and press conference was the driver, where Draghi outlined the upcoming QE program. Read more

Durable goods purchases as a useful long leading indicator

By: New_Deal_democrat

I have been searching for mid-cycle indicators, that is, economic data which tends to peak at about the middle of an economic expansion. One general area which has looked promising is capital and durable goods expenditures. While I haven't found any Holy Grail, personal consumption expenditures on durable goods looks like a useful long leading to coincident indicator depending on how it is measured. The first useful measurement is to compare purchases of durable goods YoY (blue) with purchases of nondurable goods YoY (red), first for 1960 to the 1980s:: and from the 1980s to the present: The above graph shows quarterly averages to cut down on noise. Read more

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